SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Freethiel Stadion plays host to SK Beveren versus Zulte Waregem in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 17 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SK Beveren have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's home record at Freethiel Stadion: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Freethiel Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — SK Beveren are significantly better at Freethiel Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Zulte Waregem's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for SK Beveren, 1.10 for Zulte Waregem — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: SK Beveren 2W, Zulte Waregem 3W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 0–4 with Zulte Waregem winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Zulte Waregem half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 52% versus Zulte Waregem 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 64% | Zulte Waregem 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.52 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 0.862 / defence 1.000 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.757 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.343. Data: 10 SK Beveren games / 40 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 49% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 25%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Zulte Waregem 4.00. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 30% | Zulte Waregem 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 49% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG SK Beveren 1.52 / Zulte Waregem 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 0.862 / def 1.000 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.757 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Zulte Waregem xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 April 2027 at Freethiel Stadion.
Where is SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem part of?
SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 49% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem?
Record (5 meetings): SK Beveren 2W | Draws 0 | Zulte Waregem 3W.
What form are SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (0.86) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zulte Waregem's attack (0.76x) against SK Beveren's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.88
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.53
1.02
Zulte Waregem xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
6%
17.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.02 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 31W 5D 6L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem's form line: 15W 10D 17L from 42 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 1.02 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zulte Waregem.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 2.62 PPG from 21 outings (18W 1D 2L).
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 5W 7D 9L from 21 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SK Beveren are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.43 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 31W 5D 6L in their last 42 games (2.33 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 15W 10D 17L in their last 42 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Zulte Waregem away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.62 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.05 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Zulte Waregem been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Zulte Waregem in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zulte Waregem won 4-0 on 7 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SK Beveren have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
SK Beveren
0
Draws
3
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem?
From 5 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 2, Zulte Waregem have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Zulte Waregem 4-0 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 43%, Zulte Waregem 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (SK Beveren) and 57% (Zulte Waregem).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Zulte Waregem in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Zulte Waregem?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 57% of Zulte Waregem's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of SK Beveren's recent games and 57% of Zulte Waregem's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.