SK Beveren vs Charleroi – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Charleroi at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Beveren vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SK Beveren and Charleroi meet at Freethiel Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
SK Beveren (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SK Beveren's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at Freethiel Stadion this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Freethiel Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — SK Beveren are significantly better at Freethiel Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Charleroi have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charleroi's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Charleroi half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 51% versus Charleroi 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 65% | Charleroi 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.00 xG and Charleroi 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 0.795 / defence 0.986 | Charleroi attack 1.069 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.386. SK Beveren's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 SK Beveren games / 35 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 26% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 48%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Charleroi 2.08. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 30% | Charleroi 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 26% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG SK Beveren 1.00 / Charleroi 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 0.795 / def 0.986 | Charleroi attack 1.069 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Charleroi xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Charleroi kick off?
SK Beveren vs Charleroi is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Freethiel Stadion.
Where is SK Beveren vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Charleroi part of?
SK Beveren vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 26% chance of winning, Charleroi a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SK Beveren and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SK Beveren and Charleroi in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Charleroi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SK Beveren's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.07x) against SK Beveren's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 4/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
26%
3.87
26%
3.79
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.46
1.46
Charleroi xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
6%
16.64
18%
5.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.46 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 2.54 PPG on a 30W 4D 3L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi's form line: 15W 6D 16L from 37 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 1.16 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charleroi.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 2.89 PPG from 18 outings (17W 1D 0L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 8W 2D 8L from 18 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SK Beveren are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.32 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Charleroi in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 30W 4D 3L in their last 37 games (2.54 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 15W 6D 16L in their last 37 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Charleroi away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.89 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.44 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Charleroi in 32%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 39%, Charleroi 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SK Beveren) and 39% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; Charleroi in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 44% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SK Beveren's recent games and 39% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and Charleroi tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.