OH Leuven 1-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OH Leuven at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this OH Leuven vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
OH Leuven and Charleroi meet at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 December 2024 at 17:15 UTC.
Form
OH Leuven (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OH Leuven's home record at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for OH Leuven, 0 for Charleroi and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 2–0 with OH Leuven winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
OH Leuven — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Charleroi — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 55% versus Charleroi 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 43% | Charleroi 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.31 xG and Charleroi 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.753 / defence 0.847 | Charleroi attack 1.005 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.001. OH Leuven's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 OH Leuven games / 47 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 43% | Draw 36% | Charleroi 20%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.33 | Draw 2.78 | Charleroi 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, OH Leuven are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OH Leuven if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: OH Leuven 70% | Charleroi 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 43% | Draw 36% | Charleroi 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG OH Leuven 1.31 / Charleroi 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.753 / def 0.847 | Charleroi attack 1.005 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Charleroi xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Charleroi kick off?
OH Leuven vs Charleroi kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
OH Leuven 1 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is OH Leuven vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Charleroi part of?
OH Leuven vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 43% chance of winning, Charleroi a 20% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both OH Leuven and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Charleroi?
Record (2 meetings): OH Leuven 1W | Draws 1 | Charleroi 0W.
What form are OH Leuven and Charleroi in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Charleroi (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates OH Leuven's attack at 0.75x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.00x) against OH Leuven's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
43%
2.30
36%
2.77
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.17
0.85
Charleroi xG
2.30
43%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
6%
18.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for OH Leuven and 0.85 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OH Leuven come into this having played 53 games, going 14W 19D 20L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-D. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Charleroi sit at 1.25 PPG from 53 outings (18W 12D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for OH Leuven against 1.25 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
OH Leuven's home form reads 10W 8D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Charleroi have taken 0.88 points per game from 26 outings (6W 5D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OH Leuven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
OH Leuven are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.04 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Charleroi in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 14W 19D 20L in their last 53 games (1.15 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 18W 12D 23L in their last 53 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Charleroi away?
OH Leuven's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.46 PPG; Charleroi away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
OH Leuven
4
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 3, Charleroi have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Charleroi 3-1 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Charleroi see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 54%, Charleroi 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (OH Leuven) and 50% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: OH Leuven keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Charleroi in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 42% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OH Leuven vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of OH Leuven's recent games and 50% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and Charleroi tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as OH Leuven edge out Charleroi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat Charleroi 1-0 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.31 xG and Charleroi 0.85 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.75 / defence 0.85 against Charleroi attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 43% | Draw 36% | Charleroi 20%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 43%, Charleroi 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.15 PPG, Charleroi 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.