Charleroi vs Antwerp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Charleroi (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Charleroi face Antwerp.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charleroi and Antwerp meet at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.
Antwerp have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Antwerp have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Antwerp have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Charleroi's 2.50 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Antwerp's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Charleroi, who have won 7 of the last 10 meetings against Antwerp — a 1D 2W return for the visitors.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Charleroi winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Charleroi and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Antwerp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 52% versus Antwerp 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 41% | Antwerp 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.44 xG and Antwerp 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.117 / defence 0.860 | Antwerp attack 1.043 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.397. Antwerp's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 34 Charleroi games / 34 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 41% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 33%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Antwerp 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Charleroi 60% | Antwerp 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 41% | Draw 26% | Antwerp 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Charleroi 1.44 / Antwerp 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.117 / def 0.860 | Antwerp attack 1.043 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Antwerp xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Antwerp kick off?
Charleroi vs Antwerp is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
Where is Charleroi vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Antwerp part of?
Charleroi vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 41% chance of winning, Antwerp a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Charleroi and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Antwerp?
Record (10 meetings): Charleroi 7W | Draws 1 | Antwerp 2W.
What form are Charleroi and Antwerp in?
Charleroi (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Antwerp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 1.12x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (1.04x) against Charleroi's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
41%
2.42
26%
3.88
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.69
1.25
Antwerp xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
12%
8.48
8%
12.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.25 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Charleroi come into this having played 44 games, going 18W 9D 17L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Antwerp sit at 1.25 PPG from 44 outings (15W 10D 19L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Antwerp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Charleroi against 1.25 for Antwerp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Charleroi's home form reads 8W 5D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Antwerp have taken 1.10 points per game from 21 outings (6W 5D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.20 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Early Season
Antwerp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 18W 9D 17L in their last 44 games (1.43 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 15W 10D 19L in their last 44 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Antwerp away?
Charleroi's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.38 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Charleroi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 4-1 on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Charleroi
1
Draws
2
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 7, Antwerp have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Antwerp 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Antwerp?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 57%, Antwerp 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Charleroi) and 33% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 33%; Antwerp in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Charleroi's recent matches and 29% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Charleroi's recent games and 33% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Antwerp tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.