Charleroi vs Antwerp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Charleroi (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Charleroi face Antwerp.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charleroi and Antwerp meet at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.
Antwerp have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Antwerp have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Charleroi's 2.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Antwerp's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Charleroi, who have won 7 of the last 10 meetings against Antwerp — a 1D 2W return for the visitors.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Charleroi winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Charleroi and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Antwerp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 52% versus Antwerp 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 42% | Antwerp 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 2.46 xG and Antwerp 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.282 / defence 1.089 | Antwerp attack 0.908 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.301. Charleroi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — their λ of 2.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Antwerp bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Charleroi games / 38 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 63% | Draw 18% | Antwerp 19%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.59 | Draw 5.56 | Antwerp 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (63%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 60% | Antwerp 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 63% | Draw 18% | Antwerp 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 66% | xG Charleroi 2.46 / Antwerp 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.282 / def 1.089 | Antwerp attack 0.908 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Antwerp xG
66%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Antwerp kick off?
Charleroi vs Antwerp is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
Where is Charleroi vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Antwerp part of?
Charleroi vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 63% chance of winning, Antwerp a 19% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Charleroi and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Antwerp?
Record (10 meetings): Charleroi 7W | Draws 1 | Antwerp 2W.
What form are Charleroi and Antwerp in?
Charleroi (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Antwerp (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 1.28x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 2.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (0.91x) against Charleroi's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
63%
1.58
18%
5.48
19%
5.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.75
1.29
Antwerp xG
1.58
63%
Home win
5.48
18%
Draw
5.40
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
9%
11.76
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
2%
63.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.29 for Antwerp, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Charleroi come into this having played 48 games, going 21W 9D 18L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antwerp sit at 1.15 PPG from 48 outings (15W 10D 23L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Charleroi against 1.15 for Antwerp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Charleroi's home form reads 9W 6D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Antwerp have taken 0.96 points per game from 24 outings (6W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.15 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 21W 9D 18L in their last 48 games (1.50 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 15W 10D 23L in their last 48 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Antwerp away?
Charleroi's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.38 PPG; Antwerp away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Antwerp in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Charleroi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 4-1 on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Charleroi
1
Draws
2
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 7, Antwerp have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Antwerp 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Antwerp?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 62%, Antwerp 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Charleroi) and 38% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Charleroi's recent matches and 33% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Charleroi's recent games and 38% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Antwerp tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.