Oostende 3-2 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oostende vs Zulte Waregem encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zulte Waregem make the trip to Diaz Arena to face Oostende in Challenger Pro League (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Sunday 14 January 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Current Form
Oostende's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Oostende at home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Zulte Waregem have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Zulte Waregem arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Oostende, 1 for Zulte Waregem and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.6 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2023, ended Oostende 1–0 Zulte Waregem — a Oostende win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Oostende goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Zulte Waregem goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oostende 52% versus Zulte Waregem 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oostende 58% | Zulte Waregem 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Oostende surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Zulte Waregem have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oostende 0.62 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oostende attack 0.659 / defence 0.980 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.221 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 1.480. Oostende's attack rating of 0.659 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.62. Zulte Waregem have an above-average attack rating of 1.221, which lifts their away xG to 1.77. Data: built from Oostende's last 16 games and Zulte Waregem's last 16.
Result probabilities: Oostende 13% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 65%. Fair-value odds: Oostende 7.97 | Draw 4.48 | Zulte Waregem 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Zulte Waregem (65%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches — though recent form (Oostende's last 10 home games and Zulte Waregem's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Oostende 40% (last 10 home games) | Zulte Waregem 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oostende vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 17 | Venue: Diaz Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 January 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oostende 13% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Oostende 0.62 / Zulte Waregem 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Oostende attack 0.659 / def 0.980 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.221 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.128 / away 1.480 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.62
Oostende xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Zulte Waregem xG
38%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Oostende vs Zulte Waregem FAQs
What time does Oostende vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Oostende vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Diaz Arena.
What was the final score in Oostende vs Zulte Waregem?
Oostende 3 - 2 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Oostende vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Diaz Arena.
What competition is Oostende vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Oostende vs Zulte Waregem is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 17) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Oostende vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Oostende a 13% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 65% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oostende vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Oostende and Zulte Waregem will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Oostende vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Oostende's attack rating (0.66) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zulte Waregem's attack (1.22x) against Oostende's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from Oostende's last 16 games and Zulte Waregem's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-2 (14.3%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
13%
7.97
22%
4.48
65%
1.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.3%
Away win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.62
Oostende xG
Total xG
2.39
1.77
Zulte Waregem xG
7.97
13%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
1.54
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
17%
5.88
54%
1.86
Win to Nil
2%
46.86
35%
2.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 16.2 | 14.3 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Oostende vs Zulte Waregem Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Oostende vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Oostende and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 0.62 expected goals for Oostende and 1.77 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Oostende vs Zulte Waregem?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Oostende's recent record stands at 10W 13D 27L from 50 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Zulte Waregem, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 23L across 50 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Oostende against 1.18 for Zulte Waregem. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Oostende have managed 6W 4D 15L from their last 25 home games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zulte Waregem's away record stands at 10W 6D 9L across their last 25 away games, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Oostende are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.62 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem in 64%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oostende
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Oostende (Home) vs Zulte Waregem (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Oostende
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Oostende vs Zulte Waregem Form FAQs
What form are Oostende and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Oostende have gone 10W 13D 27L in their last 50 games (0.86 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 16W 11D 23L in their last 50 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oostende at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Zulte Waregem's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oostende at home: 0.88 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Oostende and Zulte Waregem, the earliest from August 2021. They cover more than one competition — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Oostende have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oostende have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Oostende
2
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Oostende vs Zulte Waregem H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Oostende and Zulte Waregem?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Oostende have won 3, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oostende and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 January 2024: Oostende 3-2 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Oostende and Zulte Waregem?
Oostende have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oostende are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oostende 52%, Zulte Waregem 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Oostende and 60% for Zulte Waregem. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oostende have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oostende home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Oostende vs Zulte Waregem Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Oostende and Zulte Waregem matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Oostende's games and 60% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Oostende and Zulte Waregem matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Oostende's matches and 60% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do Oostende and Zulte Waregem matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Oostende's recent matches and 76% of Zulte Waregem's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Oostende defy the odds to beat Zulte Waregem 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oostende beat Zulte Waregem 3-2 at Diaz Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oostende 0.62 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.77 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Oostende beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oostende attack 0.66 / defence 0.98 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.22 / defence 0.84, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oostende 13% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 65%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Oostende win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oostende 58%, Zulte Waregem 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oostende's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oostende 0.86 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oostende win broke the near-deadlock. Oostende (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.