Beerschot VA 1-1 RSC Anderlecht II – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates RSC Anderlecht II at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Beerschot VA welcome RSC Anderlecht II to Olympisch Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 January 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Beerschot VA — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Olympisch Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Olympisch Stadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RSC Anderlecht II stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for RSC Anderlecht II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RSC Anderlecht II's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Beerschot VA) versus 1.80 (RSC Anderlecht II). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Beerschot VA, 1 for RSC Anderlecht II and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2023, ended 3–1 with Beerschot VA winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Beerschot VA trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
RSC Anderlecht II trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 52% versus RSC Anderlecht II 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 56% | RSC Anderlecht II 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.15 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 1.080 / defence 0.880 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.172 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.445. Data: 38 Beerschot VA games / 38 RSC Anderlecht II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 29% | Draw 26% | RSC Anderlecht II 45%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | RSC Anderlecht II 2.22. RSC Anderlecht II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RSC Anderlecht II as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RSC Anderlecht II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Beerschot VA 60% | RSC Anderlecht II 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Jan 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 29% | Draw 26% | RSC Anderlecht II 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Beerschot VA 1.15 / RSC Anderlecht II 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 1.080 / def 0.880 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.172 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: RSC Anderlecht II (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.49
RSC Anderlecht II xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II kick off?
Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 January 2024 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Beerschot VA 1 - 1 RSC Anderlecht II.
Where is Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II part of?
Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 29% chance of winning, RSC Anderlecht II a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making RSC Anderlecht II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II?
Record (5 meetings): Beerschot VA 3W | Draws 1 | RSC Anderlecht II 1W.
What form are Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. RSC Anderlecht II (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Beerschot VA's attack at 1.08x the league average against RSC Anderlecht II's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RSC Anderlecht II's attack versus Beerschot VA's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RSC Anderlecht II Win
29%
3.42
26%
3.89
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.64
1.49
RSC Anderlecht II xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
7%
15.17
14%
7.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.49 for RSC Anderlecht II, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Beerschot VA have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 25W 6D 17L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RSC Anderlecht II's form line: 15W 15D 18L from 48 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. The sample for RSC Anderlecht II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beerschot VA are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against RSC Anderlecht II.
Venue Form
On home soil, Beerschot VA have posted 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (9W 5D 9L).
On the road, RSC Anderlecht II have gone 11W 5D 7L from 23 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; RSC Anderlecht II are on 1.48 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RSC Anderlecht II in 62%.
Last 48 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 25W 6D 17L in their last 48 games (1.69 PPG), while RSC Anderlecht II have gone 15W 15D 18L in their last 48 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or RSC Anderlecht II away?
RSC Anderlecht II's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.39 PPG; RSC Anderlecht II away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Beerschot VA have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Beerschot VA's record when hosting RSC Anderlecht II specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Beerschot VA
2
Draws
1
RSC Anderlecht II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II?
From 8 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 5, RSC Anderlecht II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Beerschot VA 4-2 RSC Anderlecht II.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beerschot VA see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 48%, RSC Anderlecht II 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Beerschot VA) and 61% (RSC Anderlecht II).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Beerschot VA have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / RSC Anderlecht II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play RSC Anderlecht II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Beerschot VA's games and 65% of RSC Anderlecht II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 61% of RSC Anderlecht II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, RSC Anderlecht II in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 17, as Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.15 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.49 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 1.08 / defence 0.88 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.17 / defence 0.94, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 29% | Draw 26% | RSC Anderlecht II 45%, with RSC Anderlecht II to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 56%, RSC Anderlecht II 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beerschot VA arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.