Lokeren-Temse 4-0 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KRC Genk II at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lokeren-Temse host KRC Genk II at Daknamstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lokeren-Temse stand at 2W 2D 5L from 9 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.89 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 0.44 goals per game and conceding 1.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 11% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lokeren-Temse's home record at Daknamstadion: 0W 2D 2L from 4 Challenger Pro League appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
KRC Genk II — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KRC Genk II's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lokeren-Temse 0.89 PPG, KRC Genk II 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Lokeren-Temse in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
KRC Genk II in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Lokeren-Temse 11% | KRC Genk II 44%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokeren-Temse 22% | KRC Genk II 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lokeren-Temse 1.07 xG and KRC Genk II 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokeren-Temse attack 0.659 / defence 1.003 | KRC Genk II attack 0.909 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.321. Lokeren-Temse's attack strength of 0.659 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. KRC Genk II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Lokeren-Temse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Lokeren-Temse games / 39 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 32% | Draw 28% | KRC Genk II 39%. Fair-value odds: Lokeren-Temse 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | KRC Genk II 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, KRC Genk II are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KRC Genk II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Lokeren-Temse 25% | KRC Genk II 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Daknamstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 32% | Draw 28% | KRC Genk II 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Lokeren-Temse 1.07 / KRC Genk II 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Lokeren-Temse attack 0.659 / def 1.003 | KRC Genk II attack 0.909 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Lokeren-Temse xG
Expected Goals
1.20
KRC Genk II xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Daknamstadion.
What was the final score in Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II?
Lokeren-Temse 4 - 0 KRC Genk II.
Where is Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Daknamstadion.
What competition is Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II part of?
Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Lokeren-Temse a 32% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II in?
Lokeren-Temse (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 0.44 / GA 1.22 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. KRC Genk II (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lokeren-Temse's attack at 0.66x the league average against KRC Genk II's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, KRC Genk II's attack versus Lokeren-Temse's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
32%
3.09
28%
3.51
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Lokeren-Temse xG
Total xG
2.27
1.20
KRC Genk II xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
10%
10.28
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Lokeren-Temse and 1.20 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lokeren-Temse's recent record stands at 2W 2D 5L from 9 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Lokeren-Temse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KRC Genk II, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 6L across 9 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lokeren-Temse on 0.89 PPG, KRC Genk II on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lokeren-Temse have managed 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KRC Genk II's away record stands at 1W 0D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Lokeren-Temse are averaging 0.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.22 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lokeren-Temse have seen both teams score in 11% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lokeren-Temse
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Lokeren-Temse have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 3W 0D 6L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lokeren-Temse at home or KRC Genk II away?
KRC Genk II's away record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lokeren-Temse at home: 0.50 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Lokeren-Temse or KRC Genk II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lokeren-Temse have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, KRC Genk II in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2024, when Lokeren-Temse won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lokeren-Temse's record when hosting KRC Genk II specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Lokeren-Temse
2
Draws
0
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II?
From 4 meetings on record, Lokeren-Temse have won 2, KRC Genk II have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when KRC Genk II 2-2 Lokeren-Temse.
Who has won more matches between Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II?
Lokeren-Temse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lokeren-Temse 25%, KRC Genk II 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Lokeren-Temse) and 50% (KRC Genk II).
On the defensive side: Lokeren-Temse have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lokeren-Temse home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lokeren-Temse play KRC Genk II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Lokeren-Temse's recent matches and 50% of KRC Genk II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Lokeren-Temse's recent games and 50% of KRC Genk II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
Lokeren-Temse have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lokeren-Temse run riot with a 4-0 hammering of KRC Genk II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lokeren-Temse beat KRC Genk II 4-0 at Daknamstadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 1.07 xG and KRC Genk II 1.20 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Lokeren-Temse beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. KRC Genk II landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 0.66 / defence 1.00 against KRC Genk II attack 0.91 / defence 1.22, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 32% | Draw 28% | KRC Genk II 39%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Lokeren-Temse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 22%, KRC Genk II 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 28%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 11% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lokeren-Temse 0.89 PPG, KRC Genk II 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lokeren-Temse win broke the near-deadlock. Lokeren-Temse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.