Francs Borains 3-2 RSC Anderlecht II – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Francs Borains at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Francs Borains vs RSC Anderlecht II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees RSC Anderlecht II travel to Stade Robert Urbain to take on Francs Borains. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 April 2025, 18:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Francs Borains have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's home record at Stade Robert Urbain: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RSC Anderlecht II stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RSC Anderlecht II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RSC Anderlecht II's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Francs Borains) versus 0.80 (RSC Anderlecht II). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Francs Borains register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, RSC Anderlecht II in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Francs Borains, 0 for RSC Anderlecht II and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Francs Borains winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Francs Borains trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
RSC Anderlecht II trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Francs Borains 56% and RSC Anderlecht II 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 65% | RSC Anderlecht II 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.53 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.868 / defence 1.256 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.964 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.231. RSC Anderlecht II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Francs Borains's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Francs Borains games / 57 RSC Anderlecht II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 39% | Draw 24% | RSC Anderlecht II 37%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | RSC Anderlecht II 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Francs Borains as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Francs Borains offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Francs Borains 70% | RSC Anderlecht II 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs RSC Anderlecht II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 39% | Draw 24% | RSC Anderlecht II 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Francs Borains 1.53 / RSC Anderlecht II 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.868 / def 1.256 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.964 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Francs Borains (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.49
RSC Anderlecht II xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs RSC Anderlecht II kick off?
Francs Borains vs RSC Anderlecht II kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Francs Borains 3 - 2 RSC Anderlecht II.
Where is Francs Borains vs RSC Anderlecht II being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs RSC Anderlecht II part of?
Francs Borains vs RSC Anderlecht II is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 39% chance of winning, RSC Anderlecht II a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Francs Borains the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Francs Borains and RSC Anderlecht II will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs RSC Anderlecht II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and RSC Anderlecht II?
Record (3 meetings): Francs Borains 2W | Draws 1 | RSC Anderlecht II 0W.
What form are Francs Borains and RSC Anderlecht II in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. RSC Anderlecht II (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against RSC Anderlecht II's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, RSC Anderlecht II's attack versus Francs Borains's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Francs Borains Win
39%
2.57
24%
4.13
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
3.02
1.49
RSC Anderlecht II xG
2.57
39%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
9%
11.44
8%
12.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and RSC Anderlecht II expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.49 for RSC Anderlecht II, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Francs Borains's recent record stands at 17W 9D 31L from 57 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RSC Anderlecht II, meanwhile, have gone 13W 18D 26L across 57 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for RSC Anderlecht II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Francs Borains on 1.05 PPG, RSC Anderlecht II on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Francs Borains have managed 7W 5D 16L from 28 games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RSC Anderlecht II's away record stands at 7W 9D 12L across 28 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Francs Borains are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; RSC Anderlecht II are on 1.39 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RSC Anderlecht II in 68%.
Last 57 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and RSC Anderlecht II in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 17W 9D 31L in their last 57 games (1.05 PPG), while RSC Anderlecht II have gone 13W 18D 26L in their last 57 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or RSC Anderlecht II away?
RSC Anderlecht II's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 0.93 PPG; RSC Anderlecht II away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Francs Borains and RSC Anderlecht II runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 17 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Francs Borains's record when hosting RSC Anderlecht II specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Francs Borains
2
Draws
1
RSC Anderlecht II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and RSC Anderlecht II?
From 6 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 3, RSC Anderlecht II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and RSC Anderlecht II last play each other?
They last met on 17 December 2025, when RSC Anderlecht II 2-0 Francs Borains.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and RSC Anderlecht II?
Francs Borains have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 57%, RSC Anderlecht II 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Francs Borains and 57% for RSC Anderlecht II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Francs Borains have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / RSC Anderlecht II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play RSC Anderlecht II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Francs Borains's games and 64% of RSC Anderlecht II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Francs Borains vs RSC Anderlecht II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Francs Borains's matches and 57% of RSC Anderlecht II's.
Do Francs Borains and RSC Anderlecht II tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, RSC Anderlecht II in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Francs Borains edge out RSC Anderlecht II 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Francs Borains beat RSC Anderlecht II 3-2 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 29, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.53 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.49 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Francs Borains beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.87 / defence 1.26 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.96 / defence 1.29, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 39% | Draw 24% | RSC Anderlecht II 37%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 65%, RSC Anderlecht II 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Francs Borains 1.05 PPG, RSC Anderlecht II 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Francs Borains win broke the near-deadlock. Francs Borains (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.