Wolfsberger AC 1-0 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lavanttal Arena plays host to Wolfsberger AC versus Austria Vienna in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wolfsberger AC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lavanttal Arena, Wolfsberger AC have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Austria Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Wolfsberger AC, 1.50 for Austria Vienna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 68% and Austria Vienna 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wolfsberger AC 72% | Austria Vienna 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.37 xG and Austria Vienna 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.159 / defence 0.979 | Austria Vienna attack 0.913 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.305. Data: 36 Wolfsberger AC games / 36 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 41% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 32%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Austria Vienna 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolfsberger AC at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 70% | Austria Vienna 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 41% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.37 / Austria Vienna 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.159 / def 0.979 | Austria Vienna attack 0.913 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Austria Vienna xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Wolfsberger AC 1 - 0 Austria Vienna.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 41% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Austria Vienna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Wolfsberger AC's attack rating (1.16) and Austria Vienna's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (0.91x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.67
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.53
1.17
Austria Vienna xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
8%
12.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.17 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Wolfsberger AC have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 17W 11D 19L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Vienna's form line: 17W 15D 15L from 47 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Wolfsberger AC against 1.40 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wolfsberger AC have posted 0.96 PPG from 23 outings (6W 4D 13L).
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 7W 7D 9L from 23 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.60 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 17W 11D 19L in their last 47 games (1.32 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 17W 15D 15L in their last 47 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 0.96 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Wolfsberger AC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 0-4 on 11 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 2W 0D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
1
Draws
5
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, Austria Vienna have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 3-0 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Wolfsberger AC, 65% for Austria Vienna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Wolfsberger AC and 61% for Austria Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 65% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 61% of Austria Vienna's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wolfsberger AC edge out Austria Vienna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Austria Vienna 1-0 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.37 xG and Austria Vienna 1.17 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Austria Vienna landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.16 / defence 0.98 against Austria Vienna attack 0.91 / defence 0.87, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 41% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 32%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 72%, Austria Vienna 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.32 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.