Red Bull Salzburg 3-2 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Red Bull Salzburg at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Red Bull Arena to take on Red Bull Salzburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 7W 1D 2L at Red Bull Arena — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Red Bull Salzburg) versus 2.00 (TSV Hartberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
TSV Hartberg trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 44% versus TSV Hartberg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 50% | TSV Hartberg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.11 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.026 / defence 0.707 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.181 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.313. Red Bull Salzburg's defence rating of 0.707 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Red Bull Salzburg games / 36 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 35% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 34%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | TSV Hartberg 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Red Bull Salzburg 30% | TSV Hartberg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 35% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.11 / TSV Hartberg 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.026 / def 0.707 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.181 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
1.10
TSV Hartberg xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Red Bull Salzburg 3 - 2 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 35% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg in?
Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Red Bull Salzburg's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Red Bull Salzburg's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
35%
2.86
31%
3.27
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.20
1.10
TSV Hartberg xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
12%
8.56
11%
8.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.10 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Red Bull Salzburg have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 32W 11D 3L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 16W 10D 20L from 46 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against TSV Hartberg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 2.18 PPG from 22 outings (14W 6D 2L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 7W 5D 10L from 22 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.37 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 32W 11D 3L in their last 46 games (2.33 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 16W 10D 20L in their last 46 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.18 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Red Bull Salzburg's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Red Bull Salzburg
2
Draws
1
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Red Bull Salzburg see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 36%, TSV Hartberg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 59% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 36%; TSV Hartberg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 46% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent games and 59% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Red Bull Salzburg have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Red Bull Salzburg edge out TSV Hartberg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat TSV Hartberg 3-2 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.11 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.10 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.03 / defence 0.71 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.18 / defence 0.82, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 35% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 34%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 50%, TSV Hartberg 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.