Sturm Graz 1-1 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sturm Graz face Wolfsberger AC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC meet at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga (Championship Round - 10). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 May 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sturm Graz have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sturm Graz at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wolfsberger AC's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Sturm Graz's last 10 home games and Wolfsberger AC's last 10 away games) — Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Wolfsberger AC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Sturm Graz edge it 3 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Mar 2025, ended Sturm Graz 1–1 Wolfsberger AC — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 56% versus Wolfsberger AC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 56% | Wolfsberger AC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 2.10 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.400 / defence 1.061 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.296 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.201. Sturm Graz carry an above-average attack rating of 1.400 — their 2.10 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Wolfsberger AC have an above-average attack rating of 1.296, which lifts their away xG to 1.65. Data: built from Sturm Graz's last 44 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 44.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 46% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 29%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.15 | Draw 4.03 | Wolfsberger AC 3.49. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (2.10 / 1.65) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sturm Graz's last 10 home games and Wolfsberger AC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sturm Graz 60% (last 10 home games) | Wolfsberger AC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 10 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 46% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% (Under 28%) | BTTS Yes 73% (No 27%) | xG Sturm Graz 2.10 / Wolfsberger AC 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.400 / def 1.061 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.296 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Wolfsberger AC xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC FAQs
What time does Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Sturm Graz 1 - 1 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Round - 10) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 46% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.10. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (1.30x) against Sturm Graz's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from Sturm Graz's last 44 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
46%
2.15
25%
4.03
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.75
1.65
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.15
46%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.69
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
12%
8.19
Win to Nil
9%
11.21
4%
28.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.65 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz come into this having played 63 games, going 38W 15D 10L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Wolfsberger AC sit at 1.54 PPG from 63 outings (27W 16D 20L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sturm Graz's home form reads 21W 6D 4L across their last 31 home games, a 2.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolfsberger AC have taken 1.65 points per game from their last 31 away games (14W 9D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.57 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Current Season
Wolfsberger AC
Current Season
Sturm Graz (Home) vs Wolfsberger AC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sturm Graz
Current Season
Wolfsberger AC
Current Season
❓ Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC Form FAQs
What form are Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 38W 15D 10L in their last 63 games (2.05 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 27W 16D 20L in their last 63 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.23 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Wolfsberger AC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Wolfsberger AC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won Sturm Graz 4-0 Wolfsberger AC on 3 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sturm Graz
4
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sturm Graz have won 3, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Wolfsberger AC 1-1 Sturm Graz.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 42%, Wolfsberger AC 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Sturm Graz) and 52% (Wolfsberger AC).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Wolfsberger AC in 36%; Wolfsberger AC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 45% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 52% of Wolfsberger AC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 74% of Wolfsberger AC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC finished level at 1-1 at Merkur Arena, Championship Round - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 2.10 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.65 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sturm Graz fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.40 / defence 1.06 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.30 / defence 0.94, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 46% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 29%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 56%, Wolfsberger AC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.54. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.