Wolfsberger AC 1-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lavanttal Arena plays host to Wolfsberger AC versus Austria Vienna in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wolfsberger AC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Lavanttal Arena, Wolfsberger AC have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Austria Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Austria Vienna away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Wolfsberger AC, 1.60 for Austria Vienna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Austria Vienna hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Austria Vienna have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 54% versus Austria Vienna 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 54% | Austria Vienna 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.37 xG and Austria Vienna 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.034 / defence 0.988 | Austria Vienna attack 1.120 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.201. Data: 44 Wolfsberger AC games / 44 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 35% | Draw 32% | Austria Vienna 33%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Austria Vienna 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolfsberger AC at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Wolfsberger AC 50% | Austria Vienna 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 9 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 35% | Draw 32% | Austria Vienna 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 58% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.37 / Austria Vienna 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.034 / def 0.988 | Austria Vienna attack 1.120 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Austria Vienna xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Wolfsberger AC 1 - 2 Austria Vienna.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna is a Championship Round - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 35% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna?
Record (6 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 1W | Draws 1 | Austria Vienna 4W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Austria Vienna (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Wolfsberger AC's attack rating (1.03) and Austria Vienna's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (1.12x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
35%
2.86
32%
3.15
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.69
1.33
Austria Vienna xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
9%
10.78
8%
11.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.33 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Wolfsberger AC have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 28W 16D 19L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Austria Vienna's form line: 31W 15D 17L from 63 games, 1.71 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Wolfsberger AC against 1.71 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wolfsberger AC have posted 1.53 PPG from 32 outings (14W 7D 11L).
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 14W 5D 13L from 32 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.29 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Austria Vienna in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Current Season
Austria Vienna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 28W 16D 19L in their last 63 games (1.59 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 31W 15D 17L in their last 63 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Austria Vienna away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.53 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Wolfsberger AC or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wolfsberger AC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Wolfsberger AC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 0-4 on 11 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 2W 0D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
1
Draws
5
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, Austria Vienna have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 3-0 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 62%, Austria Vienna 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Wolfsberger AC) and 34% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Austria Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Wolfsberger AC's recent matches and 41% of Austria Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Wolfsberger AC's recent games and 34% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Vienna defy the odds to beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2 at Lavanttal Arena, Championship Round - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.37 xG and Austria Vienna 1.33 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against Austria Vienna attack 1.12 / defence 0.83, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 35% | Draw 32% | Austria Vienna 33%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Austria Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 54%, Austria Vienna 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.59 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.