Ried vs Austria Lustenau – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ried at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs Austria Lustenau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Ried welcome Austria Lustenau to Innviertel Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ried stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ried haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Ried at Innviertel Arena this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Ried are significantly better at Innviertel Arena than their overall form suggests.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ried, 0 for Austria Lustenau and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.65 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.951 / defence 1.010 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.030. Data: 22 Ried games / 0 Austria Lustenau games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ried 54% | Draw 26% | Austria Lustenau 19%. Fair-value odds: Ried 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Austria Lustenau 5.26. Ried hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ried are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ried offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Innviertel Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 54% | Draw 26% | Austria Lustenau 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 48% | xG Ried 1.65 / Austria Lustenau 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.951 / def 1.010 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Ried (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Ried xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Austria Lustenau xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
Ried vs Austria Lustenau is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Innviertel Arena.
Where is Ried vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at Innviertel Arena.
What competition is Ried vs Austria Lustenau part of?
Ried vs Austria Lustenau is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 54% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ried and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Austria Lustenau?
Record (4 meetings): Ried 1W | Draws 3 | Austria Lustenau 0W.
What form are Ried and Austria Lustenau in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Ried (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Ried vs Austria Lustenau?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ried's attack rating (0.95) and Austria Lustenau's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Lustenau's attack versus Ried's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
54%
1.84
26%
3.78
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Ried xG
Total xG
2.54
0.88
Austria Lustenau xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
4%
27.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.6 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Ried and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Ried and 0.88 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs Austria Lustenau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Pre-Season
Austria Lustenau
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Ried's record when hosting Austria Lustenau specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ried
3
Draws
0
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Austria Lustenau?
From 4 meetings on record, Ried have won 1, Austria Lustenau have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ried and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Austria Lustenau 2-2 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and Austria Lustenau?
Ried have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.