FC BW Linz 0-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC BW Linz at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC BW Linz host Sturm Graz at Hofmann Personal Stadion in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC BW Linz — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC BW Linz at Hofmann Personal Stadion this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sturm Graz are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Sturm Graz have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against FC BW Linz's 0 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Sturm Graz winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sturm Graz have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
FC BW Linz trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 55% versus Sturm Graz 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 52% | Sturm Graz 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.83 xG and Sturm Graz 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 1.095 / defence 1.053 | Sturm Graz attack 1.066 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. Data: 44 FC BW Linz games / 44 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 46% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 26%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Sturm Graz 3.85. FC BW Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC BW Linz as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sturm Graz (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC BW Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC BW Linz 70% | Sturm Graz 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 7 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 46% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG FC BW Linz 1.83 / Sturm Graz 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 1.095 / def 1.053 | Sturm Graz attack 1.066 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: FC BW Linz (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Sturm Graz xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz kick off?
FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
FC BW Linz 0 - 1 Sturm Graz.
Where is FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz part of?
FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz is a Championship Round - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 46% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC BW Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz?
Record (5 meetings): FC BW Linz 0W | Draws 1 | Sturm Graz 4W.
What form are FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz in?
FC BW Linz (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC BW Linz's attack at 1.09x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus FC BW Linz's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC BW Linz Win
46%
2.15
28%
3.61
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
3.18
1.35
Sturm Graz xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
4%
24.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.35 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, FC BW Linz have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 18W 15D 27L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Sturm Graz's form line: 36W 15D 9L from 60 games, 2.05 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC BW Linz.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC BW Linz have posted 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (12W 8D 10L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 16W 9D 5L from 30 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.92 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Current Season
Sturm Graz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 18W 15D 27L in their last 60 games (1.15 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 36W 15D 9L in their last 60 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.47 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.90 PPG.
Have FC BW Linz or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC BW Linz have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Sturm Graz won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC BW Linz's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
FC BW Linz
1
Draws
7
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz?
From 8 meetings on record, FC BW Linz have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-0 FC BW Linz.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 57%, Sturm Graz 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for FC BW Linz and 67% for Sturm Graz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC BW Linz play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of FC BW Linz's games and 70% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of FC BW Linz's matches and 67% of Sturm Graz's.
Do FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
FC BW Linz have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sturm Graz defy the odds to beat FC BW Linz 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat FC BW Linz 0-1 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Championship Round - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.83 xG and Sturm Graz 1.35 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC BW Linz fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 1.09 / defence 1.05 against Sturm Graz attack 1.07 / defence 1.05, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 46% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 26%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Sturm Graz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 52%, Sturm Graz 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.