FC BW Linz 1-3 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC BW Linz at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Hofmann Personal Stadion plays host to FC BW Linz versus SCR Altach in Bundesliga (matchday 18). Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FC BW Linz have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, FC BW Linz have posted 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — FC BW Linz are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
SCR Altach (all games): 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
When travelling, SCR Altach have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in FC BW Linz's favour (1.10 vs 0.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for FC BW Linz, 0 for SCR Altach and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended FC BW Linz 1–0 SCR Altach — a FC BW Linz win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
FC BW Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 51% versus SCR Altach 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 47% | SCR Altach 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.52 xG and SCR Altach 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.963 / defence 0.913 | SCR Altach attack 0.772 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.188. SCR Altach's attack rating of 0.772 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from FC BW Linz's last 39 games and SCR Altach's last 39.
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 51% | Draw 31% | SCR Altach 18%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 1.97 | Draw 3.23 | SCR Altach 5.52. FC BW Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC BW Linz at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC BW Linz if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC BW Linz 50% (last 10 home games) | SCR Altach 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 18 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 51% | Draw 31% | SCR Altach 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG FC BW Linz 1.52 / SCR Altach 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 0.963 / def 0.913 | SCR Altach attack 0.772 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: FC BW Linz (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
0.84
SCR Altach xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach FAQs
What time does FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach kick off?
FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
FC BW Linz 1 - 3 SCR Altach.
Where is FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach part of?
FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 18) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 51% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 18% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC BW Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC BW Linz and SCR Altach will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC BW Linz's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against SCR Altach's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.77x) against FC BW Linz's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from FC BW Linz's last 39 games and SCR Altach's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC BW Linz Win
51%
1.97
31%
3.23
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.36
0.84
SCR Altach xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
4%
25.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 0.84 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, FC BW Linz have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 14W 14D 21L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
SCR Altach's form line: 8W 17D 24L from 49 games, 0.84 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for FC BW Linz against 0.84 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC BW Linz have posted 1.46 PPG from their last 24 home games (9W 8D 7L).
On the road, SCR Altach have gone 4W 7D 13L from their last 24 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC BW Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.84 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
FC BW Linz (Home) vs SCR Altach (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC BW Linz
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach Form FAQs
What form are FC BW Linz and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 14W 14D 21L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 8W 17D 24L in their last 49 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or SCR Altach away?
FC BW Linz's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.46 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.79 PPG.
Have FC BW Linz or SCR Altach been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC BW Linz have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, SCR Altach in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between FC BW Linz and SCR Altach, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 24 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won FC BW Linz 3-0 SCR Altach on 24 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC BW Linz have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC BW Linz
3
Draws
3
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and SCR Altach?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC BW Linz have won 4, SCR Altach have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and SCR Altach last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 April 2026: FC BW Linz 3-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and SCR Altach?
FC BW Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 50%, SCR Altach 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (FC BW Linz) and 46% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; SCR Altach in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC BW Linz and SCR Altach matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 46% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC BW Linz and SCR Altach matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of FC BW Linz's recent games and 46% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC BW Linz and SCR Altach matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 62% of SCR Altach's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC BW Linz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat FC BW Linz 1-3 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.52 xG and SCR Altach 0.84 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. SCR Altach outscored their 0.84 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against SCR Altach attack 0.77 / defence 1.12, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 51% | Draw 31% | SCR Altach 18%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a SCR Altach win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 47%, SCR Altach 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
SCR Altach's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 1.14 PPG, SCR Altach 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.