Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 53% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Red Bull Salzburg welcome WSG Wattens to Red Bull Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 18). Kick-off is Saturday 15 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Red Bull Salzburg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
WSG Wattens — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Red Bull Salzburg at 1.40 PPG versus WSG Wattens's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Red Bull Salzburg's games and 60% of WSG Wattens's (from Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 home games and WSG Wattens's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Red Bull Salzburg hold a clear advantage across the 6 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 0 for WSG Wattens and 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2024, ended Red Bull Salzburg 0–0 WSG Wattens — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Red Bull Salzburg an edge — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Red Bull Salzburg in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 45% versus WSG Wattens 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 51% | WSG Wattens 47%). Note also that WSG Wattens surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Red Bull Salzburg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.86 xG and WSG Wattens 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.251 / defence 0.875 | WSG Wattens attack 1.058 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.188. Red Bull Salzburg carry an above-average attack rating of 1.251 — their 1.86 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Red Bull Salzburg's last 39 games and WSG Wattens's last 39.
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 53% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 20%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | WSG Wattens 5.00. Red Bull Salzburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Red Bull Salzburg 5 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 home games and WSG Wattens's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Red Bull Salzburg 60% (last 10 home games) | WSG Wattens 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 18 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 53% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.86 / WSG Wattens 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.251 / def 0.875 | WSG Wattens attack 1.058 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
1.10
WSG Wattens xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens FAQs
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens?
Red Bull Salzburg 1 - 1 WSG Wattens.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 18) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 53% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Red Bull Salzburg's attack rating (1.25) and WSG Wattens's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Red Bull Salzburg's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Red Bull Salzburg's last 39 games and WSG Wattens's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
53%
1.89
27%
3.70
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.96
1.10
WSG Wattens xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
3%
32.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.10 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Red Bull Salzburg have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 27W 13D 9L record — D-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
WSG Wattens's form line: 11W 10D 28L from 49 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 1.04 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against WSG Wattens.
Venue Form
On home soil, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 2.21 PPG from their last 24 home games (16W 5D 3L).
On the road, WSG Wattens have gone 6W 2D 16L from their last 24 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 0.88 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg (Home) vs WSG Wattens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens Form FAQs
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 27W 13D 9L in their last 49 games (1.92 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 11W 10D 28L in their last 49 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or WSG Wattens away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.21 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or WSG Wattens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, WSG Wattens in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Dec 2021, when Red Bull Salzburg won Red Bull Salzburg 5-0 WSG Wattens.
Red Bull Salzburg's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Red Bull Salzburg
2
Draws
1
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, WSG Wattens have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: WSG Wattens 0-3 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 46%, WSG Wattens 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Red Bull Salzburg and 62% for WSG Wattens. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; WSG Wattens in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 46% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Red Bull Salzburg's matches and 62% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 71% of WSG Wattens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens finished level at 1-1 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.86 xG and WSG Wattens 1.10 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.25 / defence 0.88 against WSG Wattens attack 1.06 / defence 1.05, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 53% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 20%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 51%, WSG Wattens 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.54 scoring average — below par going forward. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.