Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al-Jazira (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sharjah FC face Al-Jazira.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Al-Jazira travel to Sharjah Stadium to take on Sharjah FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 August 2026, 16:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sharjah FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sharjah FC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Sharjah FC's home record at Sharjah Stadium: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Jazira — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Jazira haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Jazira's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al-Jazira's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Sharjah FC's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sharjah FC, 4 for Al-Jazira and 4 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2026, ended 0–5 with Al-Jazira winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sharjah FC in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al-Jazira in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 58% versus Al-Jazira 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 58% | Al-Jazira 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.52 xG and Al-Jazira 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.983 / defence 1.152 | Al-Jazira attack 0.995 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.401. Data: 26 Sharjah FC games / 26 Al-Jazira games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 36% | Draw 25% | Al-Jazira 39%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Jazira 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 70% | Al-Jazira 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 16:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 36% | Draw 25% | Al-Jazira 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Sharjah FC 1.52 / Al-Jazira 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 0.983 / def 1.152 | Al-Jazira attack 0.995 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Al-Jazira xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira is scheduled to kick off at 16:35 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Sharjah Stadium.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 36% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira?
Record (10 meetings): Sharjah FC 2W | Draws 4 | Al-Jazira 4W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Sharjah FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Al-Jazira's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
36%
2.82
25%
3.97
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
3.13
1.61
Al-Jazira xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
7%
14.05
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.61 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sharjah FC's recent record stands at 8W 5D 13L from 26 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five. Sharjah FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al-Jazira, meanwhile, have gone 13W 5D 8L across 26 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. Al-Jazira haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Jazira by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sharjah FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sharjah FC have managed 5W 0D 8L from 13 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Jazira's away record stands at 5W 4D 4L across 13 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.77 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Pre-Season
Al-Jazira
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 8W 5D 13L in their last 26 games (1.12 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 13W 5D 8L in their last 26 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al-Jazira's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.15 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Jazira have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2026, when Al-Jazira won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sharjah FC
4
Draws
4
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 2, Al-Jazira have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Al-Jazira 5-0 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 54%, Al-Jazira 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Sharjah FC) and 46% (Al-Jazira).
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Sharjah FC's games and 69% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Sharjah FC's recent games and 46% of Al-Jazira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.