Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0-2 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rashid Stadium plays host to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai versus Al-Wasl FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 12 March 2022 at 13:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at Rashid Stadium this season: 7W 1D 1L from 9 home games — 2.44 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.44 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are significantly better at Rashid Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Wasl FC's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 3W 3D 3L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0W, Al-Wasl FC 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Al-Wasl FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Al-Wasl FC — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 61% versus Al-Wasl FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 39% | Al-Wasl FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.47 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.147 / defence 1.238 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.849 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.193. Data: 18 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 18 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 42% | Draw 26% | Al-Wasl FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Wasl FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 78% | Al-Wasl FC 56% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 42% | Draw 26% | Al-Wasl FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.47 / Al-Wasl FC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.147 / def 1.238 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.849 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Al-Wasl FC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0 - 2 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 42% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC?
Record (1 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Wasl FC 1W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack rating (1.15) and Al-Wasl FC's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Wasl FC's attack (0.85x) against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
42%
2.39
26%
3.84
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
2.72
1.25
Al-Wasl FC xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
7%
13.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.25 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent record stands at 8W 6D 4L from 18 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC, meanwhile, have gone 5W 8D 5L across 18 games — 1.28 PPG, with D-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai against 1.28 for Al-Wasl FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have managed 7W 1D 1L from 9 games — 2.44 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Wasl FC's away record stands at 3W 3D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 1.17 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 8W 6D 4L in their last 18 games (1.67 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 5W 8D 5L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.44 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won 3-0 on 26 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Wasl FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
2
Draws
5
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3, Al-Wasl FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 1-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Wasl FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 56% for Al-Wasl FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai) and 44% (Al-Wasl FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Al-Wasl FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 56% of Al-Wasl FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 44% of Al-Wasl FC's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Wasl FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0-2 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.47 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.25 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.15 / defence 1.24 against Al-Wasl FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 42% | Draw 26% | Al-Wasl FC 32%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al-Wasl FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 39%, Al-Wasl FC 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.67 PPG, Al-Wasl FC 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Wasl FC win broke the near-deadlock. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.