Khorfakkan 0-2 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Al Wahda FC travel to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium to take on Khorfakkan. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 April 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Khorfakkan — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Khorfakkan are significantly better at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Wahda FC — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Khorfakkan have won 0, Al Wahda FC 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 57% versus Al Wahda FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 67% | Al Wahda FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 0.99 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.899 / defence 1.064 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.047 / defence 0.717. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.440. Al Wahda FC's defence strength of 0.717 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Khorfakkan games / 49 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 23% | Draw 25% | Al Wahda FC 52%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Al Wahda FC 1.92. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Khorfakkan 40% | Al Wahda FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 24 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 23% | Draw 25% | Al Wahda FC 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Khorfakkan 0.99 / Al Wahda FC 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.899 / def 1.064 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.047 / def 0.717 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Al Wahda FC xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 24 April 2023 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC?
Khorfakkan 0 - 2 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 23% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC?
Record (3 meetings): Khorfakkan 0W | Draws 2 | Al Wahda FC 1W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Khorfakkan's attack rating (0.90) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
23%
4.30
25%
4.00
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.59
1.60
Al Wahda FC xG
4.30
23%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
5%
21.40
19%
5.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.60 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khorfakkan come into this having played 49 games, going 14W 10D 25L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Wahda FC sit at 2.00 PPG from 49 outings (28W 14D 7L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Khorfakkan's home form reads 11W 4D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Khorfakkan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Wahda FC have taken 2.25 points per game from 24 outings (16W 6D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.90 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 14W 10D 25L in their last 49 games (1.06 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 28W 14D 7L in their last 49 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.54 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Khorfakkan or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khorfakkan have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Khorfakkan
4
Draws
5
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 1, Al Wahda FC have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Khorfakkan 1-1 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 50%, Al Wahda FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Khorfakkan and 58% for Al Wahda FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Wahda FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al Wahda FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 58% of Al Wahda FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Khorfakkan's matches and 58% of Al Wahda FC's.
Do Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Khorfakkan 0-2 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 0.99 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.60 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Khorfakkan fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.90 / defence 1.06 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.72, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 23% | Draw 25% | Al Wahda FC 52%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 67%, Al Wahda FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.06. Form held, and they took the win. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.