Khorfakkan 2-5 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajman at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khorfakkan vs Ajman encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Khorfakkan welcome Ajman to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Khorfakkan have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium this season.
Ajman — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Ajman have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Khorfakkan are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Khorfakkan, 4 for Ajman and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Khorfakkan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Khorfakkan in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Ajman in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 61% versus Ajman 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 61% | Ajman 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.27 xG and Ajman 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.937 / defence 1.069 | Ajman attack 0.913 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.394. Data: 41 Khorfakkan games / 41 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 35% | Draw 26% | Ajman 39%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Ajman 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Ajman lead the H2H ledger, but Khorfakkan carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajman at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Khorfakkan (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajman offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 80% | Ajman 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 35% | Draw 26% | Ajman 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Khorfakkan 1.27 / Ajman 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.937 / def 1.069 | Ajman attack 0.913 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Ajman (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Ajman xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Ajman kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Ajman kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Ajman?
Khorfakkan 2 - 5 Ajman.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Ajman part of?
Khorfakkan vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 35% chance of winning, Ajman a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Khorfakkan and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Ajman?
Record (9 meetings): Khorfakkan 2W | Draws 3 | Ajman 4W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Ajman in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Ajman (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Khorfakkan's attack at 0.94x the league average against Ajman's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
35%
2.87
26%
3.82
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.63
1.36
Ajman xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
9%
11.19
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.36 for Ajman, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Khorfakkan have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 14W 9D 18L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman's form line: 14W 6D 21L from 41 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khorfakkan on 1.24 PPG, Ajman on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Khorfakkan have posted 1.15 PPG from 20 outings (5W 8D 7L).
On the road, Ajman have gone 6W 3D 11L from 20 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.24 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Ajman in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 14W 9D 18L in their last 41 games (1.24 PPG), while Ajman have gone 14W 6D 21L in their last 41 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Ajman away?
Khorfakkan's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.15 PPG; Ajman away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2025, when Ajman won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Khorfakkan
3
Draws
5
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 2, Ajman have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Khorfakkan 2-5 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Ajman?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 65%, Ajman 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Khorfakkan) and 45% (Ajman).
On the defensive side: Ajman in 35%; Ajman in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 35% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 45% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khorfakkan and Ajman tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Ajman in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ajman run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Khorfakkan 2-5 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.27 xG and Ajman 1.36 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Ajman outscored their 1.36 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Ajman attack 0.91 / defence 1.05, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 35% | Draw 26% | Ajman 39%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 61%, Ajman 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Ajman's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 1.24 PPG, Ajman 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajman (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.