Dibba Al-Fujairah 0-2 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Sharjah FC travel to Dibba Stadium to take on Dibba Al-Fujairah. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 December 2022, 12:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's home record at Dibba Stadium: 0W 0D 5L from 5 Pro League appearances (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sharjah FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sharjah FC have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.60 exceeds their overall 2.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Sharjah FC's 2.00 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Dibba Al-Fujairah's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Dibba Al-Fujairah trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Sharjah FC trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Dibba Al-Fujairah 36% | Sharjah FC 27%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al-Fujairah 36% | Sharjah FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.69 xG and Sharjah FC 2.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.657 / defence 1.326 | Sharjah FC attack 1.274 / defence 0.728. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.481. Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack strength of 0.657 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sharjah FC's defence strength of 0.728 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sharjah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — the away xG of 2.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Dibba Al-Fujairah games / 37 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 8% | Draw 15% | Sharjah FC 77%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 12.50 | Draw 6.67 | Sharjah FC 1.30. The model has a clear lean to Sharjah FC (77%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sharjah FC are the pick at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Dibba Al-Fujairah 60% | Sharjah FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Dibba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Dec 2022, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 8% | Draw 15% | Sharjah FC 77% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 46% | xG Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.69 / Sharjah FC 2.50 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.657 / def 1.326 | Sharjah FC attack 1.274 / def 0.728 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.481 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Expected Goals
2.50
Sharjah FC xG
46%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 12:45 on Sunday 25 December 2022 at Dibba Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC?
Dibba Al-Fujairah 0 - 2 Sharjah FC.
Where is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC part of?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al-Fujairah a 8% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 77% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Dibba Al-Fujairah and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Sharjah FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Sharjah FC in?
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Sharjah FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dibba Al-Fujairah's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Sharjah FC's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.69. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence, projects 2.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-3 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
8%
12.12
15%
6.69
77%
1.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
10.7%
Away win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Total xG
3.20
2.50
Sharjah FC xG
12.12
8%
Home win
6.69
15%
Draw
1.30
77%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
8%
12.21
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
1%
147.96
38%
2.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 3.3 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 2.50 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Dibba Al-Fujairah have picked up 0.36 PPG on a 1W 1D 9L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC's form line: 7W 2D 2L from 11 games, 2.09 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sharjah FC are the form team by 1.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dibba Al-Fujairah have posted 0.00 PPG from 5 outings (0W 0D 5L).
On the road, Sharjah FC have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 away games — 2.60 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 2.09 PPG overall record — Sharjah FC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dibba Al-Fujairah are averaging 0.45 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 2.00 scored and 0.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sharjah FC in 27%.
Defensively: Sharjah FC in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 1W 1D 9L in their last 11 games (0.36 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 7W 2D 2L in their last 11 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home: 0.00 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 2.60 PPG.
Have Dibba Al-Fujairah or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sharjah FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2026, when Sharjah FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
1
Draws
3
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Sharjah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, Sharjah FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al-Fujairah and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Sharjah FC 4-1 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dibba Al-Fujairah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dibba Al-Fujairah 60%, Sharjah FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 60% for Sharjah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC in 60%; Dibba Al-Fujairah have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al-Fujairah home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al-Fujairah play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent matches and 40% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's matches and 60% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Dibba Al-Fujairah and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sharjah FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dibba Al-Fujairah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 0-2 at Dibba Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.69 xG and Sharjah FC 2.50 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.66 / defence 1.33 against Sharjah FC attack 1.27 / defence 0.73, drawn from 11/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 8% | Draw 15% | Sharjah FC 77%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 77%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 36%, Sharjah FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 0.36. That form edge translated into the three points. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.