Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-3 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Dibba Al-Fujairah welcome Al-Wasl FC to Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 December 2025 at 12:50 UTC.
Form Guide
Dibba Al-Fujairah — All Games: 0W 3D 6L from 9 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.33 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.89 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 4L across 5 games at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium this term (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Wasl FC have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Wasl FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Wasl FC — 1.47 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.33). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, Al-Wasl FC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Al-Wasl FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Dibba Al-Fujairah in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al-Wasl FC in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dibba Al-Fujairah 78% and Al-Wasl FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al-Fujairah 56% | Al-Wasl FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.06 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.818 / defence 1.185 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.941 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.305. Data: 9 Dibba Al-Fujairah games / 34 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 28% | Draw 26% | Al-Wasl FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Wasl FC 2.17. Al-Wasl FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Wasl FC at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Wasl FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dibba Al-Fujairah 80% | Al-Wasl FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Dec 2025, 12:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 28% | Draw 26% | Al-Wasl FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.06 / Al-Wasl FC 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.818 / def 1.185 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.941 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Al-Wasl FC xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 12:50 on Sunday 28 December 2025 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC?
Dibba Al-Fujairah 1 - 3 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al-Fujairah a 28% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Wasl FC?
Record (2 meetings): Dibba Al-Fujairah 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Wasl FC 1W.
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Wasl FC in?
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 0W-3D-6L in 9 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.89 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack rating (0.82) and Al-Wasl FC's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Wasl FC's attack versus Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
28%
3.63
26%
3.81
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Total xG
2.52
1.46
Al-Wasl FC xG
3.63
28%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
6%
15.58
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 1.46 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dibba Al-Fujairah come into this having played 9 games, going 0W 3D 6L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Wasl FC sit at 1.67 PPG from 9 outings (4W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.34 PPG clear of Dibba Al-Fujairah — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dibba Al-Fujairah's home form reads 0W 1D 3L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Wasl FC have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Wasl FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dibba Al-Fujairah are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 1.22 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al-Fujairah have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Al-Wasl FC in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 3D 6L in their last 9 games (0.33 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Al-Wasl FC's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home: 0.25 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Dibba Al-Fujairah or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Wasl FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Wasl FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's record when hosting Al-Wasl FC specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
1
Draws
3
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Wasl FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, Al-Wasl FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 4-2 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dibba Al-Fujairah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Dibba Al-Fujairah at 75%, Al-Wasl FC at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dibba Al-Fujairah) and 50% (Al-Wasl FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al-Fujairah home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al-Fujairah play Al-Wasl FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's games and 75% of Al-Wasl FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent games and 50% of Al-Wasl FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Wasl FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dibba Al-Fujairah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-3 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.06 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.46 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.82 / defence 1.19 against Al-Wasl FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.97, drawn from 9/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 28% | Draw 26% | Al-Wasl FC 46%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 56%, Al-Wasl FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.