Baniyas SC 1-1 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baniyas SC at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Baniyas SC face Al Bataeh.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Baniyas SC welcome Al Bataeh to Baniyas Stadium in Pro League (matchday 10). Kick-off is Saturday 14 December 2024 at 12:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Baniyas SC have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Baniyas SC at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Bataeh — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Al Bataeh have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Baniyas SC at 0.80 PPG versus Al Bataeh's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Baniyas SC's last 10 home games and Al Bataeh's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Baniyas SC have won 0, Al Bataeh 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 14 May 2024, ended Baniyas SC 3–3 Al Bataeh — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Baniyas SC in-play and half-time data (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Al Bataeh in-play and half-time data (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baniyas SC 63% and Al Bataeh 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Baniyas SC 63% | Al Bataeh 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 2.02 xG and Al Bataeh 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.986 / defence 1.282 | Al Bataeh attack 0.863 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.880 / away 1.563. Baniyas SC's defence rating of 1.282 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Bataeh's projected output up. Data: built from Baniyas SC's last 35 games and Al Bataeh's last 35.
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 44% | Draw 24% | Al Bataeh 32%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 2.29 | Draw 4.10 | Al Bataeh 3.13. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (2.02 / 1.73) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baniyas SC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Baniyas SC's last 10 home games and Al Bataeh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Baniyas SC 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Bataeh 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 10 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 12:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 44% | Draw 24% | Al Bataeh 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% (Under 28%) | BTTS Yes 73% (No 27%) | xG Baniyas SC 2.02 / Al Bataeh 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.986 / def 1.282 | Al Bataeh attack 0.863 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.880 / away 1.563 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Al Bataeh xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh FAQs
What time does Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 12:45 UK time on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Baniyas SC 1 - 1 Al Bataeh.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh part of?
Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 10) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 44% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Baniyas SC's attack at 0.99x the league average against Al Bataeh's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Bataeh's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Baniyas SC's last 35 games and Al Bataeh's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
44%
2.29
24%
4.10
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
3.75
1.73
Al Bataeh xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.70
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
13%
7.57
Win to Nil
8%
12.93
4%
23.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.73 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Baniyas SC have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 9W 6D 20L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Al Bataeh's form line: 11W 8D 16L from 35 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baniyas SC on 0.94 PPG, Al Bataeh on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Baniyas SC have posted 1.41 PPG from their last 17 home games (7W 3D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Baniyas SC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Bataeh have gone 6W 3D 8L from their last 17 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.54 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baniyas SC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Al Bataeh in 74%.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
Baniyas SC (Home) vs Al Bataeh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baniyas SC
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
❓ Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh Form FAQs
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 9W 6D 20L in their last 35 games (0.94 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 11W 8D 16L in their last 35 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Al Bataeh away?
Baniyas SC's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 1.41 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 27 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Al Bataeh specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Baniyas SC
4
Draws
3
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Baniyas SC have won 1, Al Bataeh have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2026: Al Bataeh 0-1 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh?
Al Bataeh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Baniyas SC at 71%, Al Bataeh at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Baniyas SC and 76% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Baniyas SC's games and 65% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Baniyas SC's matches and 76% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Baniyas SC's recent matches and 82% of Al Bataeh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 2.02 xG and Al Bataeh 1.73 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Baniyas SC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.99 / defence 1.28 against Al Bataeh attack 0.86 / defence 1.09, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 44% | Draw 24% | Al Bataeh 32%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 63%, Al Bataeh 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baniyas SC 0.94 PPG, Al Bataeh 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.