Al-Wasl FC 3-1 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Wasl FC (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Wasl FC face Al Bataeh.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Zabeel Stadium plays host to Al-Wasl FC versus Al Bataeh in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 8 December 2024 at 12:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Wasl FC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Zabeel Stadium, Al-Wasl FC have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Zabeel Stadium.
Al Bataeh (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Al-Wasl FC's favour (1.60 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 4 previous meetings, Al-Wasl FC are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2024, ended 4–1 with Al-Wasl FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Wasl FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Al-Wasl FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Wasl FC 65% and Al Bataeh 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Wasl FC 74% | Al Bataeh 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 2.04 xG and Al Bataeh 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.081 / defence 1.034 | Al Bataeh attack 0.904 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.855 / away 1.553. Data: 34 Al-Wasl FC games / 34 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 49% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Al Bataeh 4.00. Al-Wasl FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Wasl FC at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Wasl FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Wasl FC 50% | Al Bataeh 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 49% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Al-Wasl FC 2.04 / Al Bataeh 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.081 / def 1.034 | Al Bataeh attack 0.904 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.855 / away 1.553 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Al Bataeh xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 12:45 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh?
Al-Wasl FC 3 - 1 Al Bataeh.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 49% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Wasl FC 4W | Draws 0 | Al Bataeh 0W.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Al Bataeh (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Wasl FC's attack at 1.08x the league average against Al Bataeh's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Bataeh's attack (0.90x) against Al-Wasl FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.91
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
3.50
1.45
Al Bataeh xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
13%
7.71
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
3%
30.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.45 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Wasl FC come into this having played 34 games, going 23W 8D 3L for 2.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Bataeh sit at 1.21 PPG from 34 outings (11W 8D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.05 PPG clear of Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Wasl FC's home form reads 12W 3D 2L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Bataeh have taken 1.41 points per game from 17 outings (7W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.56 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Al Bataeh in 74%.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 23W 8D 3L in their last 34 games (2.26 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 11W 8D 15L in their last 34 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Al Bataeh away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 2.29 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Al-Wasl FC or Al Bataeh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Al Bataeh in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Wasl FC go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won 4-1 on 2 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Wasl FC have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Al-Wasl FC
0
Draws
0
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 8, Al Bataeh have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 1-0 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 59%, Al Bataeh 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al-Wasl FC and 76% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Al Bataeh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Al-Wasl FC's games and 65% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al-Wasl FC's matches and 76% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Wasl FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Bataeh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Al Bataeh 3-1 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 2.04 xG and Al Bataeh 1.45 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against Al Bataeh attack 0.90 / defence 1.02, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 49% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 25%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 74%, Al Bataeh 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.