Al-Wasl FC 1-1 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Dibba Al-Fujairah travel to Zabeel Stadium to take on Al-Wasl FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 15 September 2022, 14:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Wasl FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Wasl FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Wasl FC have posted 4W 4D 2L at Zabeel Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Zabeel Stadium.
Across all Pro League games this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have recorded 0W 0D 2L from 2 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Dibba Al-Fujairah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Wasl FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 1.88 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.048 / defence 1.028 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.711 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.282. Data: 28 Al-Wasl FC games / 2 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 60% | Draw 22% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 18%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Wasl FC (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Wasl FC are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Sep 2022, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 60% | Draw 22% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Wasl FC 1.88 / Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.048 / def 1.028 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.711 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kicked off at 14:45 on Thursday 15 September 2022 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al-Wasl FC 1 - 1 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 60% chance of winning, Dibba Al-Fujairah a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Wasl FC's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack versus Al-Wasl FC's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
60%
1.68
22%
4.51
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
2.82
0.94
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
3%
35.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.5 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 0.94 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Wasl FC's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dibba Al-Fujairah, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 2L across 2 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Wasl FC by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dibba Al-Fujairah heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al-Fujairah are on 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Early Season
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Wasl FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Al-Wasl FC's record when hosting Dibba Al-Fujairah specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Wasl FC
1
Draws
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 3, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 4-2 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Dibba Al-Fujairah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Wasl FC's games and 50% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al-Wasl FC's matches and 50% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Wasl FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Al-Wasl FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.88 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.94 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.03 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.71 / defence 1.16, drawn from 28/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 60% | Draw 22% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 18%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 100%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Wasl FC managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Dibba Al-Fujairah conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.