Al-Wasl FC 3-1 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al-Wasl FC (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Wasl FC face Baniyas SC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Baniyas SC travel to Zabeel Stadium to take on Al-Wasl FC. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 20 May 2025, 15:10 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Wasl FC have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Wasl FC have posted 5W 3D 2L at Zabeel Stadium — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Zabeel Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baniyas SC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Baniyas SC have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al-Wasl FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Wasl FC: 5 wins from 7 previous clashes against 0 for Baniyas SC, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Al-Wasl FC a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Wasl FC trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Baniyas SC trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Wasl FC 60% versus Baniyas SC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Wasl FC 70% | Baniyas SC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 1.88 xG and Baniyas SC 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.215 / defence 0.837 | Baniyas SC attack 0.861 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.410. Data: 50 Al-Wasl FC games / 50 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 57% | Draw 23% | Baniyas SC 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Baniyas SC 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Wasl FC (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Wasl FC at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Wasl FC 60% | Baniyas SC 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 May 2025, 15:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 57% | Draw 23% | Baniyas SC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Wasl FC 1.88 / Baniyas SC 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.215 / def 0.837 | Baniyas SC attack 0.861 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Baniyas SC xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 15:10 on Tuesday 20 May 2025 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Baniyas SC?
Al-Wasl FC 3 - 1 Baniyas SC.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Baniyas SC part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 57% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Baniyas SC?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Wasl FC 5W | Draws 2 | Baniyas SC 0W.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Baniyas SC in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Baniyas SC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Wasl FC's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Baniyas SC's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, Baniyas SC's attack versus Al-Wasl FC's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
57%
1.75
23%
4.33
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
2.89
1.02
Baniyas SC xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
3%
32.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.02 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Baniyas SC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Al-Wasl FC have picked up 2.20 PPG on a 33W 11D 6L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baniyas SC's form line: 14W 10D 26L from 50 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Wasl FC are the form team by 1.16 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baniyas SC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Wasl FC have posted 2.24 PPG from 25 outings (17W 5D 3L).
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 6W 3D 16L from 25 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 2.34 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.20 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 33W 11D 6L in their last 50 games (2.20 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 14W 10D 26L in their last 50 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Baniyas SC away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 2.24 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Al-Wasl FC or Baniyas SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Baniyas SC in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Wasl FC and Baniyas SC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2023, when Al-Wasl FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Wasl FC's record when hosting Baniyas SC specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Wasl FC
2
Draws
1
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 7, Baniyas SC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Baniyas SC 2-0 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Baniyas SC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 56%, Baniyas SC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Al-Wasl FC and 56% for Baniyas SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Baniyas SC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Baniyas SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Al-Wasl FC's recent matches and 52% of Baniyas SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al-Wasl FC's matches and 56% of Baniyas SC's.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Wasl FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Baniyas SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Baniyas SC 3-1 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.88 xG and Baniyas SC 1.02 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.22 / defence 0.84 against Baniyas SC attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 57% | Draw 23% | Baniyas SC 20%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 70%, Baniyas SC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.