Al-Wasl FC 1-2 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Al Nasr travel to Zabeel Stadium to take on Al-Wasl FC. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 2 November 2021, 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Wasl FC — All Games: 3W 3D 2L from 8 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Wasl FC's home record at Zabeel Stadium: 1W 2D 1L from 4 Pro League appearances (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Nasr stand at 4W 1D 3L from 8 Pro League matches — 1.62 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.25 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Nasr have posted 2W 0D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Wasl FC 1.50 PPG, Al Nasr 1.62 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Al-Wasl FC in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games).
Al Nasr in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Wasl FC 50% versus Al Nasr 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Wasl FC 12% | Al Nasr 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 0.92 xG and Al Nasr 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.808 / defence 1.085 | Al Nasr attack 1.155 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.036 / away 1.239. Data: 8 Al-Wasl FC games / 8 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 20% | Draw 30% | Al Nasr 50%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 5.00 | Draw 3.33 | Al Nasr 2.00. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Nasr are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Wasl FC 50% | Al Nasr 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Nov 2021, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 20% | Draw 30% | Al Nasr 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Wasl FC 0.92 / Al Nasr 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.808 / def 1.085 | Al Nasr attack 1.155 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.036 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Al Nasr xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr kicked off at 16:15 on Tuesday 2 November 2021 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr?
Al-Wasl FC 1 - 2 Al Nasr.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 20% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 50% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al Nasr?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al Nasr in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Al Nasr (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Wasl FC's attack rating (0.81) and Al Nasr's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Nasr's attack versus Al-Wasl FC's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
20%
4.93
30%
3.35
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
2.48
1.55
Al Nasr xG
4.93
20%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
4%
23.27
20%
5.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 13.0 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.55 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, Al-Wasl FC have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 3W 3D 2L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Nasr's form line: 4W 1D 3L from 8 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Wasl FC on 1.50 PPG, Al Nasr on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Wasl FC have posted 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
On the road, Al Nasr have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 2.25 scored and 1.25 conceded. Al Nasr's attacking output running into Al-Wasl FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr in 25%.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Al Nasr in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 games (1.50 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Al Nasr away?
Al Nasr's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 1.25 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Al-Wasl FC or Al Nasr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al Nasr in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Wasl FC's record when hosting Al Nasr specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Wasl FC
1
Draws
2
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al Nasr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 7, Al Nasr have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al Nasr 1-1 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Al Nasr?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 50%, Al Nasr 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Al-Wasl FC) and 100% (Al Nasr).
On the defensive side: Al Nasr in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Al Nasr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Wasl FC's recent matches and 25% of Al Nasr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Wasl FC's recent games and 100% of Al Nasr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Al-Wasl FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Al-Wasl FC 1-2 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 0.92 xG and Al Nasr 1.55 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.08 against Al Nasr attack 1.16 / defence 1.10, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 20% | Draw 30% | Al Nasr 50%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 12%, Al Nasr 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Nasr's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Wasl FC 1.50 PPG, Al Nasr 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Nasr win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.