Al-Wasl FC 1-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Wasl FC at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Wasl FC face Al-Ittihad Kalba.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Zabeel Stadium plays host to Al-Wasl FC versus Al-Ittihad Kalba in Pro League (matchday 14). Kick-off: Thursday 30 January 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Al-Wasl FC's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Al-Wasl FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al-Wasl FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ittihad Kalba have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Al-Wasl FC's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 away games) — Al-Wasl FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Al-Wasl FC, 0 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 4 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2024, ended Al-Wasl FC 2–2 Al-Ittihad Kalba — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Wasl FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba half-time and goal-timing data (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Wasl FC 59% and Al-Ittihad Kalba 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Wasl FC 72% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 69%). Note also that Al-Ittihad Kalba surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Al-Wasl FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 2.21 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.290 / defence 0.929 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.991 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.754 / away 1.403. Al-Wasl FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.290 — their 2.21 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Al-Wasl FC's last 39 games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 39.
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 58% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 1.72 | Draw 4.89 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 4.65. The model has a clear lean to Al-Wasl FC (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.21 / 1.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Wasl FC are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.50 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Wasl FC's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Wasl FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, matchday 14 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 30 January 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 58% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Al-Wasl FC 2.21 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.290 / def 0.929 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.991 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.754 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba FAQs
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Thursday 30 January 2025 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Wasl FC 1 - 1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Pro League fixture (matchday 14) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 58% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 22% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Wasl FC's attack rating (1.29) and Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack (0.99x) against Al-Wasl FC's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from Al-Wasl FC's last 39 games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
58%
1.72
20%
4.89
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
3.50
1.29
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
11%
9.12
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
2%
42.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.29 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Wasl FC come into this having played 39 games, going 25W 9D 5L for 2.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad Kalba sit at 1.10 PPG from 39 outings (10W 13D 16L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Al-Wasl FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.05 PPG clear of Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Wasl FC's home form reads 13W 3D 3L across their last 19 home games, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad Kalba have taken 1.11 points per game from their last 19 away games (5W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 2.41 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.56 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba in 67%.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Al-Wasl FC (Home) vs Al-Ittihad Kalba (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Form FAQs
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 25W 9D 5L in their last 39 games (2.15 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 10W 13D 16L in their last 39 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 2.21 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Al-Wasl FC or Al-Ittihad Kalba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba, the earliest from March 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 21 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Al-Wasl FC have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-3 Al-Wasl FC on 21 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Wasl FC have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Wasl FC
6
Draws
0
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 August 2026: Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-3 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 58%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Al-Wasl FC and 68% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Wasl FC's games and 68% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Al-Wasl FC's matches and 68% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Al-Wasl FC's recent matches and 74% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba finished level at 1-1 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 2.21 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.29 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.29 / defence 0.93 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.99 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 58% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 22%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 72%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.