Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sharjah FC (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad Kalba face Sharjah FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium plays host to Al-Ittihad Kalba versus Sharjah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Thursday 6 February 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sharjah FC (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Sharjah FC are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sharjah FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the last 7 meetings, Sharjah FC have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Al-Ittihad Kalba's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Sharjah FC winning.
It is worth noting that Sharjah FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Al-Ittihad Kalba half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Sharjah FC half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 68% and Sharjah FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 68% | Sharjah FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.98 xG and Sharjah FC 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.017 / defence 1.017 | Sharjah FC attack 1.009 / defence 0.571. League average goals — home 1.688 / away 1.438. Sharjah FC's defence strength of 0.571 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 40 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 25% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Sharjah FC 2.08. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% | Sharjah FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 25% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.98 / Sharjah FC 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.017 / def 1.017 | Sharjah FC attack 1.009 / def 0.571 | league avg home 1.688 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Sharjah FC xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 6 February 2025 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 2 - 1 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 25% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W | Draws 0 | Sharjah FC 6W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Sharjah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack rating (1.02) and Sharjah FC's defence rating (0.57), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sharjah FC's attack (1.01x) against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
25%
4.00
27%
3.77
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
2.46
1.48
Sharjah FC xG
4.00
25%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
6%
17.50
18%
5.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 12.7 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.48 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent record stands at 10W 14D 16L from 40 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 5L across 40 games — 1.98 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sharjah FC by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ittihad Kalba heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad Kalba have managed 5W 7D 8L from 20 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sharjah FC's away record stands at 11W 6D 3L across 20 trips, a 1.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 2.00 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Sharjah FC in 62%.
Defensively: Sharjah FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 10W 14D 16L in their last 40 games (1.10 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 22W 13D 5L in their last 40 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.10 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad Kalba or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 0-4 on 20 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sharjah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
1
Draws
7
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, Sharjah FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-2 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 70% for Sharjah FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 55% for Sharjah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Sharjah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 70% of Sharjah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 55% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ittihad Kalba defy the odds to beat Sharjah FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Sharjah FC 2-1 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.98 xG and Sharjah FC 1.48 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against Sharjah FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.57, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 25% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 48%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Al-Ittihad Kalba win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 68%, Sharjah FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.