Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Sharjah FC (48%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Ittihad Kalba face Sharjah FC.

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Full Analysis

Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium plays host to Al-Ittihad Kalba versus Sharjah FC in Pro League (matchday 15). Kick-off: Thursday 6 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al-Ittihad Kalba's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Sharjah FC (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Sharjah FC away from home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On a straight form reading, Sharjah FC are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 home games and Sharjah FC's last 10 away games) — Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sharjah FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Sharjah FC have the stronger record — 6 wins to Al-Ittihad Kalba's 1, with 0 draws.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Aug 2024, ended Al-Ittihad Kalba 0–1 Sharjah FC — a Sharjah FC win.

Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 6 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading

Al-Ittihad Kalba half-time and goal-timing data (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Sharjah FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 68% and Sharjah FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 68% | Sharjah FC 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Ittihad Kalba surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Sharjah FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 71% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.98 xG and Sharjah FC 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.017 / defence 1.017 | Sharjah FC attack 1.009 / defence 0.571. League average goals — home 1.688 / away 1.438. Sharjah FC bring a tight defence (rating 0.571, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Ittihad Kalba's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 40 games and Sharjah FC's last 40.

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 25% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 4.00 | Draw 3.77 | Sharjah FC 2.06. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — low conviction — though recent form (Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 home games and Sharjah FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% (last 10 home games) | Sharjah FC 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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