Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-1 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Dhafra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Al-Ittihad Kalba welcome Al-Dhafra to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 26 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Dhafra have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Dhafra's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Al-Ittihad Kalba) versus 0.50 (Al-Dhafra). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ittihad Kalba register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Dhafra in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 1 for Al-Dhafra and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Al-Dhafra winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Al-Dhafra in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 59% versus Al-Dhafra 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 59% | Al-Dhafra 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.68 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.928 / defence 1.164 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.833 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.497. Al-Dhafra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad Kalba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 17 Al-Dhafra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 43% | Draw 24% | Al-Dhafra 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Dhafra 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad Kalba are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% | Al-Dhafra 62% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Dhafra | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 43% | Draw 24% | Al-Dhafra 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.68 / Al-Dhafra 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.928 / def 1.164 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.833 / def 1.352 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.497 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Al-Dhafra xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Dhafra kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Dhafra kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 26 February 2026 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Dhafra?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 1 - 1 Al-Dhafra.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Dhafra being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Dhafra part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Dhafra is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Dhafra?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 43% chance of winning, Al-Dhafra a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Dhafra?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Dhafra will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Dhafra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Dhafra?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Dhafra 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Dhafra in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack rating (0.93) and Al-Dhafra's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Dhafra's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
43%
2.32
24%
4.24
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
3.13
1.45
Al-Dhafra xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
19%
5.36
Win to Nil
10%
9.89
6%
16.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Dhafra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Dhafra expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.45 for Al-Dhafra, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Dhafra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent record stands at 5W 4D 8L from 17 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Dhafra, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 10L across 17 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.12 PPG, Al-Dhafra on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad Kalba have managed 1W 4D 3L from 8 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Dhafra's away record stands at 1W 2D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Al-Dhafra are on 1.35 scored and 2.12 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Al-Dhafra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Dhafra in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 5W 4D 8L in their last 17 games (1.12 PPG), while Al-Dhafra have gone 5W 2D 10L in their last 17 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Al-Dhafra away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 0.88 PPG; Al-Dhafra away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Dhafra runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Nov 2025, when Al-Dhafra won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Al-Dhafra specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
3
Draws
1
Al-Dhafra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Dhafra?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, Al-Dhafra have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Dhafra last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-1 Al-Dhafra.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Dhafra?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ittihad Kalba at 75%, Al-Dhafra at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al-Ittihad Kalba) and 38% (Al-Dhafra).
On the defensive side: Al-Dhafra in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Al-Dhafra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Al-Dhafra?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 62% of Al-Dhafra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Dhafra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent games and 38% of Al-Dhafra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Dhafra tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Al-Dhafra in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Dhafra share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Dhafra drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.68 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.45 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.93 / defence 1.16 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.83 / defence 1.35, drawn from 43/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 43% | Draw 24% | Al-Dhafra 33%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 59%, Al-Dhafra 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.12 PPG, Al-Dhafra 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.