Al-Dhafra 2-3 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Al-Dhafra welcome Khorfakkan to Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 February 2026 at 13:25 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Dhafra — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Al-Dhafra have gone 4W 0D 3L this season (7 games, 1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al-Dhafra are significantly better at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Dhafra at 1.00 PPG versus Khorfakkan's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Dhafra, 3 for Khorfakkan and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Jan 2026, ended 3–2 with Al-Dhafra winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Dhafra in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 57% versus Khorfakkan 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 57% | Khorfakkan 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 0.95 xG and Khorfakkan 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.848 / defence 1.111 | Khorfakkan attack 0.877 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.372. Data: 14 Al-Dhafra games / 40 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 27% | Draw 28% | Khorfakkan 46%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Khorfakkan 2.17. Khorfakkan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Khorfakkan at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Dhafra 57% | Khorfakkan 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 Feb 2026, 13:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 27% | Draw 28% | Khorfakkan 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Dhafra 0.95 / Khorfakkan 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.848 / def 1.111 | Khorfakkan attack 0.877 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Khorfakkan xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 13:25 on Friday 6 February 2026 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan?
Al-Dhafra 2 - 3 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 27% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Dhafra 2W | Draws 0 | Khorfakkan 3W.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Dhafra's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Khorfakkan's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Al-Dhafra's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
27%
3.77
28%
3.60
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.28
1.34
Khorfakkan xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
7%
14.35
18%
5.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 13.6 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.34 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Dhafra come into this having played 14 games, going 5W 1D 8L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khorfakkan sit at 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Dhafra on 1.14 PPG, Khorfakkan on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al-Dhafra's home form reads 4W 0D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Al-Dhafra are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Khorfakkan have taken 1.29 points per game from 7 outings (3W 0D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Dhafra come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Dhafra are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.21 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 5W 1D 8L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al-Dhafra's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 1.71 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Khorfakkan have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Sep 2021, when Khorfakkan won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Dhafra's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Al-Dhafra
0
Draws
5
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 2, Khorfakkan have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Khorfakkan 2-0 Al-Dhafra.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan?
Khorfakkan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Dhafra 57%, Khorfakkan 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al-Dhafra and 57% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Dhafra have failed to score in 29% of games; Khorfakkan in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Khorfakkan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Al-Dhafra's recent matches and 29% of Khorfakkan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al-Dhafra's matches and 57% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al-Dhafra and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Khorfakkan edge out Al-Dhafra 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al-Dhafra 2-3 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 0.95 xG and Khorfakkan 1.34 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Dhafra beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Khorfakkan outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.85 / defence 1.11 against Khorfakkan attack 0.88 / defence 0.87, drawn from 14/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 27% | Draw 28% | Khorfakkan 46%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 57%, Khorfakkan 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Dhafra 1.14 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khorfakkan win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.