Al Bataeh 1-2 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wahda FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Al Wahda FC travel to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium to take on Al Bataeh. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 February 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Bataeh — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Bataeh have posted 3W 4D 3L at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Wahda FC have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Bataeh at 1.20 PPG versus Al Wahda FC's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Bataeh register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Wahda FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al Bataeh have won 1, Al Wahda FC 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Al Bataeh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Bataeh in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Bataeh 60% versus Al Wahda FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Bataeh 66% | Al Wahda FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.42 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 1.010 / defence 1.031 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.953 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.655. Data: 38 Al Bataeh games / 39 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 32% | Draw 27% | Al Wahda FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Al Wahda FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Al Bataeh 60% | Al Wahda FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 32% | Draw 27% | Al Wahda FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Al Bataeh 1.42 / Al Wahda FC 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 1.010 / def 1.031 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.953 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.655 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Al Wahda FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Al Bataeh 1 - 2 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 32% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al Bataeh 1W | Draws 0 | Al Wahda FC 2W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Bataeh's attack rating (1.01) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Al Bataeh's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
32%
3.11
27%
3.73
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
3.05
1.63
Al Wahda FC xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
6%
15.83
10%
10.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.63 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Bataeh come into this having played 38 games, going 9W 10D 19L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Wahda FC sit at 1.89 PPG from 38 outings (21W 9D 8L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Bataeh's home form reads 3W 8D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Wahda FC have taken 2.16 points per game from 19 outings (13W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.76 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 9W 10D 19L in their last 38 games (0.97 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 21W 9D 8L in their last 38 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 0.89 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 2.16 PPG.
Have Al Bataeh or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Bataeh have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2022, when Al Wahda FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Bataeh's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al Bataeh
1
Draws
5
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 2, Al Wahda FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Bataeh 63%, Al Wahda FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al Bataeh) and 47% (Al Wahda FC).
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 47%; Al Bataeh have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Al Wahda FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Al Bataeh's games and 53% of Al Wahda FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Al Bataeh's recent games and 47% of Al Wahda FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Wahda FC edge out Al Bataeh 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Al Bataeh 1-2 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.42 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.63 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Al Wahda FC attack 0.95 / defence 0.91, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 32% | Draw 27% | Al Wahda FC 41%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 66%, Al Wahda FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.