Sharjah FC 1-0 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba meet at Sharjah Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sharjah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC's home record at Sharjah Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Sharjah FC's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al-Ittihad Kalba's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sharjah FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, Sharjah FC are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2023, ended 4–3 with Sharjah FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sharjah FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Sharjah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 49% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 49% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 2.10 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.209 / defence 0.870 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.063 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.665. Data: 39 Sharjah FC games / 39 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 49% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 26%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.85. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sharjah FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.64 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 70% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 49% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 71% | xG Sharjah FC 2.10 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.209 / def 0.870 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.063 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.665 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Sharjah FC 1 - 0 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 49% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (5 meetings): Sharjah FC 4W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sharjah FC's attack at 1.21x the league average against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack (1.06x) against Sharjah FC's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
49%
2.05
25%
4.03
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
3.64
1.54
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.44
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
12%
8.19
Win to Nil
10%
9.57
3%
31.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.54 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sharjah FC come into this having played 39 games, going 18W 12D 9L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad Kalba sit at 1.18 PPG from 39 outings (12W 10D 17L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sharjah FC's home form reads 7W 6D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad Kalba have taken 1.21 points per game from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.36 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 18W 12D 9L in their last 39 games (1.69 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 12W 10D 17L in their last 39 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Sharjah FC's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.42 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al-Ittihad Kalba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 0-4 on 20 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sharjah FC have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sharjah FC
1
Draws
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 7, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-2 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 53%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Sharjah FC and 68% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Sharjah FC's games and 58% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Sharjah FC's matches and 68% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sharjah FC edge out Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-0 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 2.10 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.54 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sharjah FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Ittihad Kalba landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.87 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.06 / defence 1.12, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 49% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 26%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 49%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.