Ajman 4-3 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajman at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajman vs Al Wahda FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ajman and Al Wahda FC meet at Ajman Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 31 January 2025 at 13:15 UTC.
Current Form
Ajman's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ajman have posted 5W 3D 2L at Ajman Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Wahda FC (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Wahda FC have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Ajman 2W, Al Wahda FC 3W, 1D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Al Wahda FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ajman half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al Wahda FC half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ajman 59% and Al Wahda FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 56% | Al Wahda FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.55 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 1.127 / defence 0.916 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.879 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.737 / away 1.399. Al Wahda FC's defence strength of 0.790 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Ajman games / 39 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 46% | Draw 27% | Al Wahda FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Al Wahda FC 3.70. Ajman hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ajman as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajman if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ajman 60% | Al Wahda FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jan 2025, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 46% | Draw 27% | Al Wahda FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Ajman 1.55 / Al Wahda FC 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 1.127 / def 0.916 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.879 / def 0.790 | league avg home 1.737 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Ajman (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Al Wahda FC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Ajman vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 13:15 on Friday 31 January 2025 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Al Wahda FC?
Ajman 4 - 3 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Ajman vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Ajman vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 46% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ajman and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al Wahda FC?
Record (6 meetings): Ajman 2W | Draws 1 | Al Wahda FC 3W.
What form are Ajman and Al Wahda FC in?
Ajman (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ajman's attack at 1.13x the league average against Al Wahda FC's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Wahda FC's attack (0.88x) against Ajman's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
46%
2.16
27%
3.76
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Ajman xG
Total xG
2.67
1.12
Al Wahda FC xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
6%
17.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Ajman and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Ajman and 1.12 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Ajman have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 12W 12D 15L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC's form line: 18W 10D 11L from 39 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Wahda FC are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ajman.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ajman have posted 1.21 PPG from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L).
On the road, Al Wahda FC have gone 8W 4D 7L from 19 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ajman are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.72 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wahda FC in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 12W 12D 15L in their last 39 games (1.23 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 18W 10D 11L in their last 39 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.21 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajman have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Wahda FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ajman
1
Draws
5
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 4, Al Wahda FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-3 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 53%, Al Wahda FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Ajman) and 53% (Al Wahda FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 37%; Ajman have failed to score in 32% of games; Al Wahda FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Al Wahda FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Ajman's recent matches and 53% of Al Wahda FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajman vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Ajman's matches and 53% of Al Wahda FC's.
Do Ajman and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajman edge out Al Wahda FC 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Al Wahda FC 4-3 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.55 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Ajman beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Wahda FC outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 1.13 / defence 0.92 against Al Wahda FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.79, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 46% | Draw 27% | Al Wahda FC 27%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 56%, Al Wahda FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Ajman winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ajman (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.