Ajman 1-1 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajman at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajman vs Al-Dhafra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Dhafra make the trip to Ajman Stadium to face Ajman in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Monday 19 January 2026 at 13:05 UTC.
Form
Ajman (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman at Ajman Stadium this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Al-Dhafra's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.83 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Ajman against 1.20 for Al-Dhafra. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ajman lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Ajman winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ajman — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al-Dhafra — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 17% versus Al-Dhafra 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 33% | Al-Dhafra 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.68 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.836 / defence 1.007 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.966 / defence 1.540. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.344. Al-Dhafra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.540 — this is suppressing Ajman's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Ajman games / 12 Al-Dhafra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 46% | Draw 24% | Al-Dhafra 30%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Dhafra 3.33. Ajman hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajman are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajman if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Ajman 50% | Al-Dhafra 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Al-Dhafra | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 19 Jan 2026, 13:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 46% | Draw 24% | Al-Dhafra 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Ajman 1.68 / Al-Dhafra 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.836 / def 1.007 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.966 / def 1.540 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Ajman (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Al-Dhafra xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Al-Dhafra kick off?
Ajman vs Al-Dhafra kicked off at 13:05 on Monday 19 January 2026 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Al-Dhafra?
Ajman 1 - 1 Al-Dhafra.
Where is Ajman vs Al-Dhafra being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Al-Dhafra part of?
Ajman vs Al-Dhafra is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Al-Dhafra?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 46% chance of winning, Al-Dhafra a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Al-Dhafra?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Ajman and Al-Dhafra will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Al-Dhafra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al-Dhafra?
Record (4 meetings): Ajman 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Dhafra 2W.
What form are Ajman and Al-Dhafra in?
Ajman (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Al-Dhafra (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ajman's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Al-Dhafra's defensive record (1.54x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Al-Dhafra's attack (0.97x) against Ajman's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 38/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
46%
2.16
24%
4.19
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Ajman xG
Total xG
2.99
1.31
Al-Dhafra xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
6%
18.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.1 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Al-Dhafra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Ajman and Al-Dhafra expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Ajman and 1.31 for Al-Dhafra, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Al-Dhafra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ajman come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 1D 7L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Dhafra sit at 1.25 PPG from 12 outings (5W 0D 7L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Ajman against 1.25 for Al-Dhafra. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Ajman's home form reads 2W 0D 4L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Dhafra have taken 0.50 points per game from 6 outings (1W 0D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Dhafra's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajman come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ajman are averaging 0.58 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Al-Dhafra are on 1.58 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajman have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Al-Dhafra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Al-Dhafra in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 4W 1D 7L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while Al-Dhafra have gone 5W 0D 7L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Al-Dhafra away?
Ajman's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Dhafra away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Ajman or Al-Dhafra been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al-Dhafra in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Dhafra won 3-0 on 4 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajman have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Dhafra — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ajman
1
Draws
2
Al-Dhafra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al-Dhafra?
From 6 meetings on record, Ajman have won 3, Al-Dhafra have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Al-Dhafra last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Dhafra 0-1 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Al-Dhafra?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ajman see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 17% (Ajman) and 50% (Al-Dhafra) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Ajman) and 50% (Al-Dhafra).
On the defensive side: Ajman keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ajman have failed to score in 50% of games; Al-Dhafra in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Al-Dhafra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Al-Dhafra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Ajman's recent matches and 50% of Al-Dhafra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajman vs Al-Dhafra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ajman's recent games and 50% of Al-Dhafra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajman and Al-Dhafra tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Dhafra in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajman and Al-Dhafra share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman and Al-Dhafra finished level at 1-1 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.68 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.31 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.84 / defence 1.01 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.97 / defence 1.54, drawn from 38/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 46% | Draw 24% | Al-Dhafra 30%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 33%, Al-Dhafra 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajman 1.08 PPG, Al-Dhafra 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.