Vorskla Poltava 0-1 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho plays host to Vorskla Poltava versus Kryvbas KR in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 30 March 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vorskla Poltava have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vorskla Poltava have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kryvbas KR's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kryvbas KR's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Kryvbas KR are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Vorskla Poltava 1W, Kryvbas KR 2W, 2D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Vorskla Poltava half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 43% versus Kryvbas KR 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 41% | Kryvbas KR 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 0.89 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.764 / defence 1.035 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.049 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 0.887. Vorskla Poltava's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 Vorskla Poltava games / 49 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 32% | Draw 32% | Kryvbas KR 36%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Kryvbas KR 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kryvbas KR at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 20% | Kryvbas KR 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Mar 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 32% | Draw 32% | Kryvbas KR 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Vorskla Poltava 0.89 / Kryvbas KR 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.764 / def 1.035 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.049 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.182 / away 0.887 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Kryvbas KR xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 30 March 2025 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Vorskla Poltava 0 - 1 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 32% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR?
Record (5 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 1W | Draws 2 | Kryvbas KR 2W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vorskla Poltava's attack at 0.76x the league average against Kryvbas KR's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kryvbas KR's attack (1.05x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 51/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
32%
3.15
32%
3.09
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
1.85
0.96
Kryvbas KR xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 15.2 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 0.96 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vorskla Poltava come into this having played 49 games, going 14W 12D 23L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kryvbas KR sit at 1.82 PPG from 49 outings (26W 11D 12L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kryvbas KR carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Vorskla Poltava's home form reads 6W 6D 11L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Kryvbas KR have taken 1.78 points per game from 23 outings (12W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.51 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 14W 12D 23L in their last 49 games (1.10 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 26W 11D 12L in their last 49 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Kryvbas KR's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.04 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won 1-4 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Vorskla Poltava
2
Draws
3
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR?
From 6 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, Kryvbas KR have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 0-1 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 44%, Kryvbas KR 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Vorskla Poltava) and 44% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR in 39%; Vorskla Poltava have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 48% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 44% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kryvbas KR edge out Vorskla Poltava 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Vorskla Poltava 0-1 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 0.89 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.96 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vorskla Poltava fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.76 / defence 1.03 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.05 / defence 0.98, drawn from 51/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 32% | Draw 32% | Kryvbas KR 36%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 41%, Kryvbas KR 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.