Veres Rivne 0-1 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Kharkiv at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Veres Rivne host FC Kharkiv at Avanhard in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Veres Rivne stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Veres Rivne have posted 3W 4D 3L at Avanhard — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
FC Kharkiv's away record: 3W 6D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Kharkiv are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Veres Rivne hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for FC Kharkiv, with 0 draws in between.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2026, ended 0–4 with FC Kharkiv winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Veres Rivne and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Veres Rivne in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 34% versus FC Kharkiv 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Veres Rivne 34% | FC Kharkiv 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.05 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 1.014 / defence 1.304 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.908 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.243. Data: 59 Veres Rivne games / 29 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 26% | Draw 29% | FC Kharkiv 46%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | FC Kharkiv 2.17. FC Kharkiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Veres Rivne dominate the H2H record, yet FC Kharkiv are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Kharkiv at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Veres Rivne 40% | FC Kharkiv 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Avanhard • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 26% | Draw 29% | FC Kharkiv 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Veres Rivne 1.05 / FC Kharkiv 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 1.014 / def 1.304 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.908 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
1.47
FC Kharkiv xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Veres Rivne 0 - 1 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 26% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv?
Record (6 meetings): Veres Rivne 5W | Draws 0 | FC Kharkiv 1W.
What form are Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Veres Rivne's attack at 1.01x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Veres Rivne's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
26%
3.91
29%
3.46
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.52
1.47
FC Kharkiv xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
6%
17.01
16%
6.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 1.47 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Veres Rivne's recent record stands at 7W 11D 14L from 32 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five.
FC Kharkiv, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 5L across 32 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-L-D-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Kharkiv by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Veres Rivne heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Veres Rivne have managed 4W 5D 6L from 15 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Kharkiv's away record stands at 6W 7D 2L across 15 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Veres Rivne are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.19 scored and 0.62 conceded.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Current Season
FC Kharkiv
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 7W 11D 14L in their last 32 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 14W 13D 5L in their last 32 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or FC Kharkiv away?
FC Kharkiv's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.13 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FC Kharkiv go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2026, when FC Kharkiv won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Veres Rivne's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Veres Rivne
0
Draws
3
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv?
From 8 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 5, FC Kharkiv have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Veres Rivne see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 40%, FC Kharkiv 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Veres Rivne and 27% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 40%; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 40% of games; FC Kharkiv in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 47% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 27% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Kharkiv edge out Veres Rivne 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Veres Rivne 0-1 at Avanhard, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.05 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.47 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Veres Rivne fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 1.01 / defence 1.30 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.91 / defence 0.85, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 26% | Draw 29% | FC Kharkiv 46%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 34%, FC Kharkiv 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.