Shakhtar Donetsk vs Bukovyna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shakhtar Donetsk vs Bukovyna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Lviv plays host to Shakhtar Donetsk versus Bukovyna in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 28 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shakhtar Donetsk have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Arena Lviv this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Lviv. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bukovyna (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bukovyna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Bukovyna have posted 0W 1D 3L from 4 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Shakhtar Donetsk. A 1.30 PPG lead over Bukovyna (2.20 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Shakhtar Donetsk have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, Bukovyna in only 25%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading & In-Play
Shakhtar Donetsk — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Bukovyna — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Shakhtar Donetsk 20% | Bukovyna 30%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shakhtar Donetsk 40% | Bukovyna 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.90 xG and Bukovyna 0.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.076 / defence 0.744 | Bukovyna attack 0.656 / defence 1.343. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.065. Bukovyna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.343 — this is suppressing Shakhtar Donetsk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shakhtar Donetsk's defence rating of 0.744 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 10 Bukovyna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 68% | Draw 25% | Bukovyna 7%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.47 | Draw 4.00 | Bukovyna 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (68%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shakhtar Donetsk 20% | Bukovyna 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Bukovyna | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 68% | Draw 25% | Bukovyna 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 37% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 1.90 / Bukovyna 0.52 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.076 / def 0.744 | Bukovyna attack 0.656 / def 1.343 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
0.52
Bukovyna xG
37%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Bukovyna kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Bukovyna is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Arena Lviv.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Bukovyna being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Bukovyna part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Bukovyna is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Bukovyna?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 68% chance of winning, Bukovyna a 7% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Bukovyna?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Bukovyna will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Bukovyna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Bukovyna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Bukovyna in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Bukovyna (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shakhtar Donetsk's attack rating (1.08) and Bukovyna's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bukovyna's attack (0.66x) against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.52.
These ratings are built from 41/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 3-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
68%
1.46
25%
4.05
7%
14.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
16.0%
Home win
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
2.42
0.52
Bukovyna xG
1.46
68%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
14.31
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
59%
1.68
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
41%
2.46
1%
95.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 8.8 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 16.0 | 8.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Bukovyna?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Bukovyna expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.52 for Bukovyna, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Bukovyna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Shakhtar Donetsk have picked up 2.20 PPG on a 7W 1D 2L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bukovyna's form line: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games, 0.90 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-D. The sample for Bukovyna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shakhtar Donetsk are the form team by 1.30 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bukovyna.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L).
On the road, Bukovyna have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bukovyna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Bukovyna are on 0.70 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shakhtar Donetsk have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Bukovyna in 30%.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games; Bukovyna in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Bukovyna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Bukovyna in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 games (2.20 PPG), while Bukovyna have gone 1W 6D 3L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Bukovyna away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.50 PPG; Bukovyna away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Bukovyna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Bukovyna in 50%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Bukovyna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 25% (Bukovyna) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 50% (Bukovyna).
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Bukovyna in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Bukovyna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play Bukovyna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 25% of Bukovyna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Bukovyna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent games and 50% of Bukovyna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.