Ruh Lviv 1-1 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs Polessya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Polessya make the trip to Arena Lviv to face Ruh Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Wednesday 4 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Ruh Lviv (all games): 1W 7D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Lviv, Ruh Lviv have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Lviv. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ruh Lviv are significantly better at Arena Lviv than their overall form suggests.
Polessya's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Polessya have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Ruh Lviv, 1.30 for Polessya — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Ruh Lviv 1W, Polessya 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Polessya half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 54% versus Polessya 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 36% | Polessya 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.27 xG and Polessya 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.989 / defence 0.803 | Polessya attack 1.218 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.019. Polessya have an above-average attack strength of 1.218 — the away xG of 1.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Ruh Lviv games / 44 Polessya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 41% | Draw 33% | Polessya 27%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Polessya 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ruh Lviv are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 40% | Polessya 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 41% | Draw 33% | Polessya 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.27 / Polessya 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.989 / def 0.803 | Polessya attack 1.218 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Polessya xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Polessya kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Polessya kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 4 December 2024 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Polessya?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 1 Polessya.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Polessya part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 41% chance of winning, Polessya a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Polessya?
Record (2 meetings): Ruh Lviv 1W | Draws 1 | Polessya 0W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Polessya in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Polessya (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Ruh Lviv vs Polessya?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (0.99) and Polessya's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Polessya's attack (1.22x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
41%
2.47
33%
3.07
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.27
1.00
Polessya xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
8%
13.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.00 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 16W 20D 8L from 44 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Polessya, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 11L across 44 games — 1.66 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Ruh Lviv against 1.66 for Polessya. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 8W 10D 3L from 21 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Polessya's away record stands at 10W 4D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.39 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Polessya in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 16W 20D 8L in their last 44 games (1.55 PPG), while Polessya have gone 20W 13D 11L in their last 44 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Polessya away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.62 PPG; Polessya away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Polessya in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ruh Lviv have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Polessya — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ruh Lviv
2
Draws
1
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Polessya?
From 6 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 3, Polessya have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Polessya 2-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Polessya?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 52%, Polessya 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Ruh Lviv) and 52% (Polessya).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Polessya in 38%; Polessya in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Polessya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 43% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Polessya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 52% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Polessya tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Polessya in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv and Polessya share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv and Polessya finished level at 1-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.27 xG and Polessya 1.00 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.99 / defence 0.80 against Polessya attack 1.22 / defence 1.06, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 41% | Draw 33% | Polessya 27%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 36%, Polessya 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Polessya's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.55 PPG, Polessya 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.