Ruh Lviv 1-1 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Ruh Lviv welcome Chornomorets to Arena Lviv. Kick-off is set for Friday 25 October 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 5W 3D 2L at Arena Lviv — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Lviv. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Ruh Lviv are significantly better at Arena Lviv than their overall form suggests.
Chornomorets — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chornomorets have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ruh Lviv 1.30 PPG, Chornomorets 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Ruh Lviv, 1 for Chornomorets and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 2–0 with Ruh Lviv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (39 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Chornomorets in-play tendencies (39 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 54% versus Chornomorets 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 41% | Chornomorets 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.33 xG and Chornomorets 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 1.118 / defence 0.775 | Chornomorets attack 0.812 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.109. Ruh Lviv's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Ruh Lviv games / 40 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 52% | Draw 29% | Chornomorets 19%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Chornomorets 5.26. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 40% | Chornomorets 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 52% | Draw 29% | Chornomorets 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.33 / Chornomorets 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 1.118 / def 0.775 | Chornomorets attack 0.812 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Chornomorets xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 25 October 2024 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 1 Chornomorets.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 52% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets?
Record (5 meetings): Ruh Lviv 3W | Draws 1 | Chornomorets 1W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Chornomorets (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (1.12) and Chornomorets's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chornomorets's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
52%
1.94
29%
3.40
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.03
0.70
Chornomorets xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.67
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
5%
19.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.70 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ruh Lviv come into this having played 39 games, going 15W 17D 7L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 1.03 PPG from 39 outings (12W 4D 23L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ruh Lviv's home form reads 5W 9D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Chornomorets have taken 0.47 points per game from 17 outings (2W 2D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chornomorets's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.08 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 15W 17D 7L in their last 39 games (1.59 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 12W 4D 23L in their last 39 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Chornomorets away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.41 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.47 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Chornomorets specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Ruh Lviv
2
Draws
1
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets?
From 7 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 4, Chornomorets have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Chornomorets 1-2 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 47%, Chornomorets 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Ruh Lviv) and 41% (Chornomorets).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 29% of games; Chornomorets in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 47% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 41% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 11, as Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.33 xG and Chornomorets 0.70 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.12 / defence 0.78 against Chornomorets attack 0.81 / defence 1.03, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 52% | Draw 29% | Chornomorets 19%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 41%, Chornomorets 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (39 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Chornomorets's trading profile (39 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.