Oleksandria 1-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Oleksandria at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Oleksandria welcome Ruh Lviv to CSC Nika in Premier League (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 5 October 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Oleksandria have gone 8W 2D 0L — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Oleksandria's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Ruh Lviv stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

Oleksandria are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Oleksandria, 0 for Ruh Lviv and 5 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.2 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 4 May 2024, ended Oleksandria 2–2 Ruh Lviv — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 40% versus Ruh Lviv 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 49% | Ruh Lviv 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.30 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.328 / defence 1.035 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.981 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.120. Oleksandria carry an above-average attack rating of 1.328 — their 1.30 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Oleksandria's last 37 games and Ruh Lviv's last 37.

Result probabilities: Oleksandria 39% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 31%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.54 | Draw 3.39 | Ruh Lviv 3.20. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Oleksandria 50% (last 10 home games) | Ruh Lviv 50% (last 10 away games).

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