Shakhtar Donetsk 5-1 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk host LNZ Cherkasy at Arena Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 October 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Shakhtar Donetsk — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Shakhtar Donetsk have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Arena Lviv this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Shakhtar Donetsk are significantly better at Arena Lviv than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.70 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 2, LNZ Cherkasy 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 3–0 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 49% versus LNZ Cherkasy 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 57% | LNZ Cherkasy 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.70 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.561 / defence 0.947 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.955 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.104. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.561 — their λ of 1.70 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 38 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 52% | Draw 27% | LNZ Cherkasy 21%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | LNZ Cherkasy 4.76. Shakhtar Donetsk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shakhtar Donetsk 50% | LNZ Cherkasy 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 52% | Draw 27% | LNZ Cherkasy 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 1.70 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.561 / def 0.947 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.955 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
1.00
LNZ Cherkasy xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Shakhtar Donetsk 5 - 1 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 52% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (2 meetings): Shakhtar Donetsk 2W | Draws 0 | LNZ Cherkasy 0W.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shakhtar Donetsk's attack at 1.56x the league average against LNZ Cherkasy's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, LNZ Cherkasy's attack versus Shakhtar Donetsk's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.68
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
2.69
1.00
LNZ Cherkasy xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
4%
26.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.4 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.00 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Shakhtar Donetsk have picked up 2.27 PPG on a 26W 6D 5L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
LNZ Cherkasy's form line: 14W 11D 12L from 37 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shakhtar Donetsk are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against LNZ Cherkasy.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 2.39 PPG from 18 outings (14W 1D 3L).
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 6W 7D 5L from 18 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.08 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Early Season
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 26W 6D 5L in their last 37 games (2.27 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 14W 11D 12L in their last 37 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.39 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shakhtar Donetsk's record when hosting LNZ Cherkasy specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Shakhtar Donetsk
1
Draws
1
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 6 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 4, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 2-2 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 44%, LNZ Cherkasy 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 33% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 44% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent games and 33% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 5-1 hammering of LNZ Cherkasy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat LNZ Cherkasy 5-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.70 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.00 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.56 / defence 0.95 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.95 / defence 0.91, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 52% | Draw 27% | LNZ Cherkasy 21%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 57%, LNZ Cherkasy 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.43. Form held, and they took the win. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.22 average — above their attacking norm. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.