Livyi Bereh 1-0 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Livyi Bereh vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ruh Lviv make the trip to Stadion Livyi Bereh to face Livyi Bereh in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Livyi Bereh (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Livyi Bereh at Stadion Livyi Bereh this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Ruh Lviv have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Ruh Lviv's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ruh Lviv are 0.70 PPG clear of Livyi Bereh in recent Premier League fixtures (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Livyi Bereh lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Ruh Lviv winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Livyi Bereh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Ruh Lviv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Livyi Bereh 28% | Ruh Lviv 38%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Livyi Bereh 31% | Ruh Lviv 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 0.96 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.818 / defence 1.279 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.003 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.012. Data: 28 Livyi Bereh games / 58 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 28% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 44%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Ruh Lviv 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ruh Lviv are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Livyi Bereh 40% | Ruh Lviv 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 28% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Livyi Bereh 0.96 / Ruh Lviv 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.818 / def 1.279 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.003 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Ruh Lviv xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Livyi Bereh vs Ruh Lviv?
Livyi Bereh 1 - 0 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Livyi Bereh vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 28% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Livyi Bereh and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Ruh Lviv?
Record (1 meetings): Livyi Bereh 0W | Draws 0 | Ruh Lviv 1W.
What form are Livyi Bereh and Ruh Lviv in?
Livyi Bereh (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Livyi Bereh's attack at 0.82x the league average against Ruh Lviv's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ruh Lviv's attack (1.00x) against Livyi Bereh's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
28%
3.62
28%
3.55
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
2.26
1.30
Ruh Lviv xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
8%
13.26
17%
5.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 13.5 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.30 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Livyi Bereh come into this having played 32 games, going 7W 7D 18L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Ruh Lviv sit at 1.31 PPG from 32 outings (10W 12D 10L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Ruh Lviv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Livyi Bereh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Livyi Bereh's home form reads 4W 4D 8L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Ruh Lviv have taken 1.38 points per game from 16 outings (5W 7D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Livyi Bereh are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.06 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh have seen both teams score in 28% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ruh Lviv in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Current Season
Ruh Lviv
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 7W 7D 18L in their last 32 games (0.88 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 10W 12D 10L in their last 32 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Livyi Bereh at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Ruh Lviv's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Livyi Bereh at home: 1.00 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Livyi Bereh or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Livyi Bereh have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Livyi Bereh
0
Draws
1
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Ruh Lviv?
From 2 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 1, Ruh Lviv have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Livyi Bereh 1-0 Ruh Lviv.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Livyi Bereh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Livyi Bereh 31%, Ruh Lviv 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Livyi Bereh and 31% for Ruh Lviv.
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv in 44%; Livyi Bereh have failed to score in 50% of games; Ruh Lviv in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 44% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Livyi Bereh vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 31% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Livyi Bereh defy the odds to beat Ruh Lviv 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Livyi Bereh beat Ruh Lviv 1-0 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 0.96 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.30 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ruh Lviv landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.82 / defence 1.28 against Ruh Lviv attack 1.00 / defence 1.01, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 28% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 44%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Livyi Bereh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 31%, Ruh Lviv 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Livyi Bereh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.