FC Mariupol 0-1 Lviv – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Lviv at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Mariupol vs Lviv encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka plays host to FC Mariupol versus Lviv in Premier League (matchday 16). Kick-off: Friday 26 November 2021 at 17:30 UK time.

Current Form

FC Mariupol's record over their last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

FC Mariupol's form when playing at home: 0W 0D 7L across their last 7 home games (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 0.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Lviv (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Lviv have posted 2W 1D 3L from their last 6 away outings — 1.17 PPG. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.

Lviv arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Jul 2021, ended FC Mariupol 1–1 Lviv — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

FC Mariupol half-time and goal-timing data (last 15 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (last 15 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Mariupol 67% and Lviv 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Mariupol 73% | Lviv 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Mariupol 1.15 xG and Lviv 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Mariupol attack 0.918 / defence 1.712 | Lviv attack 0.708 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.250. Lviv's attack rating of 0.708 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.51. FC Mariupol's defence rating of 1.712 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lviv's projected output up. Data: built from FC Mariupol's last 15 games and Lviv's last 15.

Result probabilities: FC Mariupol 28% | Draw 28% | Lviv 45%. Fair-value odds: FC Mariupol 3.59 | Draw 3.63 | Lviv 2.24. Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Lviv as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lviv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — low conviction — though recent form (FC Mariupol's last 7 home games and Lviv's last 6 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Mariupol 71% (last 7 home games) | Lviv 50% (last 6 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights