Shakhtar Donetsk 6-1 Lviv – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shakhtar Donetsk vs Lviv encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Shakhtar Donetsk and Lviv meet at NSK Olimpijs'kyj in Premier League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Friday 3 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Shakhtar Donetsk's overall Premier League record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Shakhtar Donetsk at NSK Olimpijs'kyj this season: 7W 0D 1L from 8 home games — 2.62 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.88 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Lviv have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Lviv have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Shakhtar Donetsk's 2.80 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Lviv's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Shakhtar Donetsk, 0 for Lviv and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2021, ended 3–0 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Shakhtar Donetsk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.

Lviv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 44% versus Lviv 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 56% | Lviv 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.86 xG and Lviv 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.655 / defence 0.951 | Lviv attack 0.699 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.182. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.655 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 16 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 16 Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 63% | Draw 22% | Lviv 15%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Lviv 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Shakhtar Donetsk 62% | Lviv 43%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights