Uthai Thani 1-1 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Uthai Thani and Chonburi FC meet at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 October 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Uthai Thani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Uthai Thani have gone 1W 7D 2L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chonburi FC have collected 0.50 PPG across 6 Thai League 1 outings this season: 0W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC away from home this season: 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Uthai Thani, 0.50 for Chonburi FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Uthai Thani, 0 for Chonburi FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Uthai Thani goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Chonburi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 83% versus Chonburi FC 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 50% | Chonburi FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.34 xG and Chonburi FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.780 / defence 1.145 | Chonburi FC attack 0.730 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.198. Uthai Thani's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Uthai Thani games / 6 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 43% | Draw 31% | Chonburi FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Chonburi FC 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Uthai Thani 70% | Chonburi FC 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Oct 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 43% | Draw 31% | Chonburi FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Uthai Thani 1.34 / Chonburi FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.780 / def 1.145 | Chonburi FC attack 0.730 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Chonburi FC xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 4 October 2025 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Chonburi FC?
Uthai Thani 1 - 1 Chonburi FC.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Chonburi FC part of?
Uthai Thani vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 43% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Uthai Thani and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Chonburi FC?
Record (2 meetings): Uthai Thani 1W | Draws 1 | Chonburi FC 0W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Chonburi FC in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Uthai Thani's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Chonburi FC's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Chonburi FC's attack (0.73x) against Uthai Thani's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
43%
2.35
31%
3.19
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.34
1.00
Chonburi FC xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
7%
14.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.00 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Uthai Thani's recent record stands at 0W 2D 4L from 6 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chonburi FC, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 3L across 6 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.33 PPG for Uthai Thani against 0.50 for Chonburi FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Uthai Thani have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chonburi FC's away record stands at 0W 2D 1L across 3 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Uthai Thani are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 0.50 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Early Season
Chonburi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 0W 2D 4L in their last 6 games (0.33 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Chonburi FC away?
Chonburi FC's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 0.33 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Uthai Thani have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Uthai Thani
3
Draws
0
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Chonburi FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 1, Chonburi FC have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Chonburi FC 1-1 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Chonburi FC?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Uthai Thani tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 67%, Chonburi FC 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Uthai Thani) and 67% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC in 33%; Uthai Thani have failed to score in 33% of games; Chonburi FC in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Uthai Thani's recent matches and 33% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Uthai Thani vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 67% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Uthai Thani and Chonburi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Uthai Thani and Chonburi FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.34 xG and Chonburi FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.78 / defence 1.15 against Chonburi FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.16, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 43% | Draw 31% | Chonburi FC 26%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 50%, Chonburi FC 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 0.33 PPG, Chonburi FC 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.