Sukhothai FC 5-2 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Nong Bua Pitchaya travel to Thung Talay Luang Stadium to take on Sukhothai FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 8 November 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sukhothai FC stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sukhothai FC have posted 6W 0D 4L at Thung Talay Luang Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nong Bua Pitchaya — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's away record: 0W 2D 3L from 5 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sukhothai FC at 1.60 PPG versus Nong Bua Pitchaya's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sukhothai FC, 0 for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sukhothai FC trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
Nong Bua Pitchaya trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sukhothai FC 67% and Nong Bua Pitchaya 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sukhothai FC 67% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 2.61 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 1.102 / defence 1.042 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.907 / defence 1.348. League average goals — home 1.755 / away 1.110. Nong Bua Pitchaya bring a strong defensive rating of 1.348 — this is suppressing Sukhothai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Sukhothai FC games / 12 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 69% | Draw 19% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 12%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Sukhothai FC (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.61 / 1.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 50% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 8 Nov 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 69% | Draw 19% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 62% | xG Sukhothai FC 2.61 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 1.102 / def 1.042 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.907 / def 1.348 | league avg home 1.755 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (69%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.61
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
62%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 8 November 2024 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Sukhothai FC 5 - 2 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 69% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Record (2 meetings): Sukhothai FC 0W | Draws 2 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sukhothai FC's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.61. The same calculation in reverse, Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.8%), 3-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
69%
1.44
19%
5.19
12%
8.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.61
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
3.65
1.05
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
8.70
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
7%
13.54
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
1%
117.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 2.61 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.05 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 5W 2D 5L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's form line: 4W 3D 5L from 12 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sukhothai FC on 1.42 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 2.40 PPG from 5 outings (4W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nong Bua Pitchaya's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 2.00 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Nong Bua Pitchaya in 75%.
Last 12 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 5W 2D 5L in their last 12 games (1.42 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Nong Bua Pitchaya away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 2.40 PPG; Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Sukhothai FC or Nong Bua Pitchaya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sukhothai FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2024, when Sukhothai FC won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Nong Bua Pitchaya specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sukhothai FC
3
Draws
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 4 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 1, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-1 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 40%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Sukhothai FC and 80% for Nong Bua Pitchaya. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Sukhothai FC's games and 80% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 80% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sukhothai FC run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Nong Bua Pitchaya.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 5-2 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 2.61 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.05 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Sukhothai FC beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nong Bua Pitchaya outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.04 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.91 / defence 1.35, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 69% | Draw 19% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 12%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 67%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.42 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.