Rayong FC 3-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayong FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayong FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rayong FC host Nong Bua Pitchaya at WHA Rayong Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 21 October 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rayong FC stand at 1W 2D 6L from 9 Thai League 1 matches — 0.56 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.22 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayong FC's home record at WHA Rayong Stadium: 0W 2D 2L from 4 Thai League 1 appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya have recorded 2W 3D 4L from 9 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 2.22 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.22 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya away from home this season: 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rayong FC at 0.56 PPG versus Nong Bua Pitchaya's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Rayong FC trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Nong Bua Pitchaya trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rayong FC 56% and Nong Bua Pitchaya 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rayong FC 56% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.45 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 0.673 / defence 1.345 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.946 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.096. Rayong FC's attack strength of 0.673 is below the league average — the 1.45 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nong Bua Pitchaya bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Rayong FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Rayong FC games / 9 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 36% | Draw 30% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 34%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rayong FC are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayong FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rayong FC 75% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: WHA Rayong Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 21 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 36% | Draw 30% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Rayong FC 1.45 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 0.673 / def 1.345 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.946 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Rayong FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayong FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Rayong FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 21 October 2024 at WHA Rayong Stadium.
What was the final score in Rayong FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Rayong FC 3 - 1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Rayong FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at WHA Rayong Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Rayong FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 36% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rayong FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Rayong FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Rayong FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rayong FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Rayong FC (all comps): 1W-2D-6L in 9 | 0.56 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.22 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.22 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Rayong FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rayong FC's attack rating (0.67) and Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack versus Rayong FC's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayong FC Win
36%
2.75
30%
3.36
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
2.84
1.40
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
9%
11.10
8%
12.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Rayong FC and 1.40 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Rayong FC have picked up 0.56 PPG on a 1W 2D 6L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's form line: 2W 3D 4L from 9 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Nong Bua Pitchaya are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rayong FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rayong FC have posted 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L).
On the road, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nong Bua Pitchaya's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayong FC are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 1.33 scored and 2.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nong Bua Pitchaya in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Blended
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayong FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 1W 2D 6L in their last 9 games (0.56 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Nong Bua Pitchaya away?
Rayong FC's home record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 0.50 PPG; Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Rayong FC
1
Draws
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 2 meetings on record, Rayong FC have won 1, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-1 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Rayong FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Nong Bua Pitchaya see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rayong FC at 75%, Nong Bua Pitchaya at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Rayong FC and 75% for Nong Bua Pitchaya. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayong FC play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Rayong FC's games and 75% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rayong FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Rayong FC's matches and 75% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's.
Do Rayong FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya tend to score early?
Rayong FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayong FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nong Bua Pitchaya.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayong FC beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 3-1 at WHA Rayong Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.45 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.40 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rayong FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 0.67 / defence 1.34 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.95 / defence 1.30, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 36% | Draw 30% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 34%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 56%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayong FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nong Bua Pitchaya arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.56. Form was overturned, with Rayong FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rayong FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.