Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Ratchaburi (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ratchaburi face Uthai Thani.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Dragon Solar Park plays host to Ratchaburi versus Uthai Thani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 6 December 2026 at 11:30 UTC.

Form

Ratchaburi (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Dragon Solar Park, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Uthai Thani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Uthai Thani have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Ratchaburi's favour (1.90 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Historically, Ratchaburi have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 6 meetings, with Uthai Thani managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 3–1 with Ratchaburi winning.

The historical record gives Ratchaburi a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Uthai Thani half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ratchaburi 60% and Uthai Thani 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 57% | Uthai Thani 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.94 xG and Uthai Thani 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.384 / defence 0.873 | Uthai Thani attack 0.940 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.436. Ratchaburi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.384 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Ratchaburi games / 37 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 55% | Draw 22% | Uthai Thani 23%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Uthai Thani 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 70% | Uthai Thani 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights