Ratchaburi 1-0 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dragon Solar Park plays host to Ratchaburi versus Uthai Thani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Ratchaburi (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dragon Solar Park, Ratchaburi have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Uthai Thani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Uthai Thani have posted 3W 1D 4L from 8 away outings — 1.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Ratchaburi, 1.10 for Uthai Thani — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ratchaburi, 1 for Uthai Thani and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Uthai Thani winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Uthai Thani half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 50% versus Uthai Thani 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 50% | Uthai Thani 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.04 xG and Uthai Thani 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.061 / defence 0.841 | Uthai Thani attack 0.853 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.239. Data: 48 Ratchaburi games / 18 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 63% | Draw 23% | Uthai Thani 14%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Uthai Thani 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 70% | Uthai Thani 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 63% | Draw 23% | Uthai Thani 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Ratchaburi 2.04 / Uthai Thani 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.061 / def 0.841 | Uthai Thani attack 0.853 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Uthai Thani xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Ratchaburi 1 - 0 Uthai Thani.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani part of?
Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 63% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani?
Record (1 meetings): Ratchaburi 0W | Draws 0 | Uthai Thani 1W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Uthai Thani (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 1.06x the league average against Uthai Thani's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Uthai Thani's attack (0.85x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 48/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
63%
1.59
23%
4.31
14%
7.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.93
0.89
Uthai Thani xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
7.12
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
13%
7.71
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
2%
54.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.89 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ratchaburi come into this having played 18 games, going 7W 4D 7L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Uthai Thani sit at 1.11 PPG from 18 outings (5W 5D 8L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Ratchaburi against 1.11 for Uthai Thani. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Ratchaburi's home form reads 5W 0D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Ratchaburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Uthai Thani have taken 1.43 points per game from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.17 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 games (1.39 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 5W 5D 8L in their last 18 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Uthai Thani away?
Ratchaburi's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 2.14 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ratchaburi go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
1
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani?
From 6 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 3-1 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 57%, Uthai Thani 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Ratchaburi and 71% for Uthai Thani. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Uthai Thani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Ratchaburi's games and 57% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Ratchaburi's matches and 71% of Uthai Thani's.
Do Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Uthai Thani 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Uthai Thani 1-0 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 2.04 xG and Uthai Thani 0.89 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Uthai Thani landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.06 / defence 0.84 against Uthai Thani attack 0.85 / defence 1.20, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 63% | Draw 23% | Uthai Thani 14%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 50%, Uthai Thani 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (18 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (18 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.39 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.